Thursday, January 28, 2010

Optimism (cont'd)

The forecasting products continue to suggest a favorable environment for flying down to the DC area tomorrow evening. The map at left was issued about 19Z this afternoon, valid for 00Z tomorrow evening. It looks a lot like the one that was issued yesterday. The northern edge of the precipitation field looks to be somewhere around Richmond.

The Bridgeport Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) for time of departure is looking pretty good, with no precipitation and scattered clouds at 5,000 feet MSL. Since the TAF says "scattered", I expect the layer to be rather thin and so I will certainly be on top at my usual cruise altitude of 8,000 feet. Here's the TAF:

KBDR 282332Z 2900/2924 29020G31KT P6SM SCT019 BKN080 
     TEMPO 2900/2901 6SM -SHSN BKN035 
     FM290200 31017G27KT P6SM SCT045 
     FM290900 32014G22KT P6SM SCT050 
     FM291600 32020G31KT P6SM SCT050 
     FM292200 31018KT P6SM SCT050

The middle of the trip will be over eastern Pennsylvania; the Reading TAF looks great, calling for few clouds at 25,000 feet MSL after 22Z:

KRDG 282325Z 2900/2924 31020G33KT P6SM SCT070 
     FM290500 30015G24KT P6SM SCT050 
     FM292200 30011KT P6SM FEW250

And, the TAF for Washington National (KDCA) tells me to expect a broken ceiling at 15,000 feet MSL and light winds out of the northwest on arrival:

KDCA 282330Z 2900/2924 32012G21KT P6SM FEW250 
     FM290300 33011G18KT P6SM SKC 
     FM290800 32009G16KT P6SM SCT060 SCT200 
     FM291300 31008KT P6SM FEW050 BKN250 
     FM291600 32010G16KT P6SM SCT150 BKN250 
     FM292200 34006KT P6SM BKN150

If there's any unpleasant news, it's that the westerly winds aloft will be strong -- FlightPlan.com is telling me to expect 2 hours + 50 minutes enroute -- and tomorrow morning about 0700 local time, when I'm at the airport stowing the baggage, removing the cover and "pre-pre-flighting" N631S, it is going to be very, very cold.

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