Mid-Air Over the Hudson - Remedial Action

You'll all remember the accident that occurred last August 8th, when a Piper Saratoga and an air-tour helicopter collided in the Hudson River VFR corridor, fatally injuring all nine souls on board the two aircraft. I posted about it HERE, HERE and HERE.

The last of those posts discussed the FAA's proposed remedial actions to improve the safety of aircraft transiting or operating in the corridor. Now, I hold in my hand the recently issued 78th Edition of the New York VFR Terminal Area Chart (TAC). Published by the National Aeronautical Charting Office, it enters into effect at 0901Z tomorrow, 19 November, and it embodies the remedial actions previously discussed. Here's a clip of the affected portion:

A Regulatory Notice on the back of the chart sets out the rules in force in the Special Flight Rules Area. It begins by defining the Hudson River and East River Exclusions (i.e., excluded from the Class B airspace).

Alpine Tower

For the Hudson, it's essentially that airspace from the surface to 1,300 feet MSL between the banks of the river from the Alpine Tower in the north to the Verrazano Narrows Bridge in the south. (The East River Exclusion is mainly of interest to local helicopter and seaplane operators.)

The notice then sets out communication requirements. While operating in the exclusion, pilots must monitor the Common Traffic Advisory Frequency and announce aircraft type, position, direction and altitude at (as a minimum) these prominent points:

Goldman Sachs

• Alpine Tower
  
• George Washington Bridge
  
• USS Intrepid
  
• Goldman Sachs Tower
  
• Statue of Liberty
  
• Verrazano Narrows Bridge
  

The notice goes on to specify requirements for aircraft operation. It imposes a maximum speed of 140 KIAS and mandates use of anti-collision lights and position/navigation lights (illumination of landing lights is recommended). Pilots must have the current New York TAC on board and be familiar with its contents.

Aircraft are required to follow the eastern bank of the river when northbound and the western bank when southbound. (Keep Right!) And, aircraft that are not landing or departing the Manhattan heliports or conducting other local operations are required to transit the exclusion at altitudes from 1,000 feet MSL to the Class B floor (i.e., 1,300 feet MSL). The transient VFR pilot thus has a 300 foot altitude band to work with. Interestingly, local operators seem not to be constrained to operate below 1,000 feet MSL.

Adjacent to the Regulatory Notice on the back of the chart is a description of the new VFR Transition Route (referred to as "the Skyline Route"). This route is a VFR "tunnel" through the Class B airspace, not an Exclusion therefrom - so the usual Class B operating rules (14 CFR 91.131) and transponder requirements (14 CFR 215) apply.

The Skyline Route overlies the Hudson River Exclusion from Alpine Tower to the Verrazano Narrows Bridge, at altitudes from 1,300 feet to 2,000 feet MSL. The description advises northbound aircraft to contact Newark (EWR) Tower and expect to fly the east bank of the river, and southbound aircraft to contact LaGuardia (LGA) Tower and expect the west bank. The specific transition altitude will be assigned by ATC, and all are advised to "remain clear of the New York Class B until receiving specific ATC approval to enter".

I confess to some surprise that the towers are the primary contacts for the Skyline Route; I'd have expected Approach Control to assume that role. If an approaching aircraft is receiving Flight Following service from New York Approach, will they be handed off to the applicable tower for the Skyline Route transition?

I look forward to giving the Skyline Route a try, probably on one of my Monday morning trips from the DC area up to Bridgeport. I expect that I'll request the route from the first New York Approach sector and then see what develops.

The more interesting experiment will be to take the Skyline Route southbound and then pick up an IFR clearance in the air over New Jersey to facilitate later entry into the Washington Special Flight Rules Area (SFRA) and Flight Restricted Zone (FRZ), where I live. If that works, it may resolve my ongoing frustration with the "preferred" routing that usually takes me over eastern Pennsylvania.

This will be interesting.

Did I Choose Wisely?

In yesterday's post I discussed the forecasts for VKX (my home airfield) and my decision to not fly down from KBDR and to instead take the train. So, I'm curious about what I would have encountered if I had decided to fly.

I've learned over time that the weather at nearby Andrews AFB (KADW) closely approximates conditions at VKX. Here are the METARS (slightly edited for space) for KADW surrounding what would have been my ETA:
KADW 140015Z AUTO 01011KT 7SM -DZ OVC007 11/10 A2987 RMK AO2 RAB0001E0012
KADW 140005Z 01013KT 5SM -RA BR OVC008 11/10 A2986
KADW 132358Z 01012G19KT 7SM -DZ OVC006 11/10 A2986 RMK CIG 005V021
KADW 132355Z 01014G19KT 8SM -DZ OVC006 11/10 A2986 RMK CIG 006V021 T01120101
KADW 132353Z 01013KT 8SM -DZ OVC006 11/10 A2986 RMK CIG 006V021
KADW 132348Z AUTO 01013KT 8SM -DZ OVC009 11/10 A2987 RMK CIG 006V021

There are a couple of interesting things to note. First, we see a 1 degree C spread between the temperature and the dew point, so low ceilings are unsurprising. Over the half hour covered, the prevailing ceiling varies from 600 to 900 feet MSL with some readings as low as 500 (see, for example, "RMK CIG 005V021" in the 2358Z METAR).

With the MDA for the one approach at VKX at 680 feet MSL, it looks like there was a good chance of my being forced to divert to my alternate, Manassas (KHEF) (which was reporting an overcast at 2000 feet MSL at the time). Since that would have entailed considerable logistical annoyance, I guess I chose widely.

'Tis an Ill Wind

And it's certainly blowing me no good today.

The 18Z TAF's are out and the forecasts for my destination area are poor:

KDCA 131821Z 1318/1418 01018G22KT 5SM -RA BR OVC015 
     FM132000 01017G22KT 4SM -DZ OVC012 
     FM140100 01014G20KT 2SM -DZ OVC009 
     FM140600 36013KT 1/2SM DZ OVC009 
     FM141000 36014KT 1SM -DZ OVC009 
     FM141600 35012KT 3SM BR OVC012
        

KADW 1317/1417 02015G25KT 9000 -RA OVC015 540209 QNH2980INS 
     TEMPO 1317/1322 3200 -RA OVC005 
     BECMG 1321/1322 36012G18KT 9000 -RA OVC009 540209 QNH2975INS
     BECMG 1400/1401 35012G18KT 9999 NSW OVC009 540209 QNH2970INS
        

KIAD 131754Z 1318/1424 01014G20KT 2SM RA BR OVC015 
     TEMPO 1318/1320 1SM RA OVC008 
     FM132000 01013G18KT 3SM -RA BR OVC012 
     FM140100 02012G20KT 1/2SM DZ OVC009 
     FM140600 36009KT 1/2SM DZ OVC009 
     FM141000 35010KT 1SM -DZ OVC008 
     FM141600 34009KT 4SM BR OVC012

If I were to depart KBDR about 22Z I'd arrive in the area of VKX about 00Z, when the KDCA weather is expected to be 2 miles in drizzle with a 900 foot overcast. Andrews AFB is forecasting something similar. The RNAV RWY 6 approach into VKX has a 680 foot minimum descent altitude (MDA) and a 1 mile visibility minimum. That's too close for confidence, and if I have to divert to Manassas (KHEF), the forecast for nearby Dulles (KIAD) goes down to 1/2 mile visibility at about that time. That makes my alternate a problem.

So, I've opted for the train. I have a good book to read and I should be home by about 10:30. The annoying part, of course, is that I then have to take the train back on Monday morning and the weather will probably be fine.

Warm, Windy and Wet

Another weekend approaches and my thoughts turn to the weather that I'll need to deal with if N631S and I are going to make the flight down to the DC area. At this time of year the first thing I look at is where the freezing level is forecast to be. Here the news is good:

The expected freezing levels are well above my usual IFR altitude of 8000 feet MSL, so whatever else I may be concerned with, icing should not be a factor.

Next, let's look at the "big picture":

The cyclonic flow around that low pressure center off of Cape Hatteras has been pumping wet maritime air into the Mid-Atlantic region for a while now, and the map shows an area of drizzle, showers and rain affecting the area of interest - eastern PA, MD, DC and VA. It'll be a warm flight, but a wet one.

The low is fairly deep and the isobars surrounding it are a bit crowded. This will give me brisk winds both aloft and on the surface from the northeast. In fact, FltPlan.Com is telling me to expect a time en route of under two hours and an average tailwind of 15 knots. Wheee!

It's too early to get pertinent Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF's) for airports near home at time of arrival (namely DCA and Andrews), but the TAF's for the big airports now go out 30 hours, so I can look at BWI and Dulles. Through 00Z on the 14th, they don't look too bad:

KBWI 121734Z 1218/1324 04015G25KT 6SM -RA SCT020 OVC030 
     FM122200 03017G27KT 6SM -RA BKN015 OVC020 
     FM130600 02016G23KT 5SM -RA BR OVC012 
     FM131300 36015G25KT 4SM -RA BKN012 OVC020
        
KIAD 121734Z 1218/1324 02013G19KT 6SM -RA SCT020 OVC025 
     FM130100 01014G24KT 5SM -RA BKN015 OVC025 
     FM131300 01013G24KT 5SM -RA OVC012

For Baltimore, four miles visibility in light rain with broken clouds at 1200 feet and an overcast at 2000. For Dulles, 5 miles visibility in light rain, and overcast at 1200. If conditions at VKX are nearly that good, the GPS approach to runway 6 will work out just fine. The things I will need to watch as flight time draws nearer are the ceiling and visibility forecasts for KDCA and KADW. If they are much lower, I could find myself needing to divert to the ILS at Manassas.

And then there's the wind. Both Baltimore and Dulles anticipate winds from the north at about 15 knots with gusts to 25. The winds at VKX, sheltered in the valley, ought to be a bit less vigorous, but that's manageable in any case.

A warm, windy and wet flight. Final decisions will await tomorrow's data.

On this Veterans' Day...

From For the Fallen by Laurence Binyon:

They went with songs to the battle, they were young,
Straight of limb, true of eye, steady and aglow.
They were staunch to the end against odds uncounted,
They fell with their faces to the foe.

They shall grow not old, as we that are left grow old;
Age shall not weary them, nor the years condemn.
At the going down of the sun and in the morning
We will remember them.

Let us remember on this day that we need to be thankful every day for the service of those who have given much, or given all, to protect us and all that we hold dear.

Today at KMGJ

No trip to DC for me this weekend. A social engagement last evening required my continued presence here in Connecticut, so here I stayed. With some time today and beautiful VMC weather on hand, I gathered up a good friend and flew N631S from Bridgeport to Orange County Airport (KMGJ) in Montgomery, NY. Orange County is a very pleasant non-towered field about six miles west of Stewart International Airport (KSWF). It offers quite a good on-field restaurant, "Rick's Runway Cafe", and good airplane watching.

One visitor was this really spiffy North American T-6 Texan. Its owner had flown it up from White Plains (KHPN).

Across the apron from the restaurant, near the gas pumps, rested a derelict twin that I just didn't recognize. This airplane is in really sad shape. The tires are flat, the bottom blade of the right prop is digging into the asphalt, the right wingtip is damaged and the paint is flaking in many places.

My friend came to the rescue. After staring at the old airplane for a few minutes he said, "I think it's a Beagle. It's British." And it turns out he's right! A bit of Google research turned up this link which provides specifications and history, and some photos of one in quite a bit better shape. I believe (based on the 2-bladed props) that the airplane at KMGJ is a Beagle B.206S Series 1, powered by Continental GIO-470 engines. (The later Series 2 used more powerful GTSIO-520's.) The FAA Aircraft Registry site shows 10 Series 1's currently holding N-numbers.

The flight over and back was a pleasant chance to hand-fly the airplane in good weather - something I probably ought to do more of. With a little luck, next weekend will bring another trip to Virginia.

Airport Micro-climates

During the first part of last Friday's flight from KBDR down to VKX there was great VMC on top and a lovely sunset to enjoy.

It was quite warm (about 15 degrees C at 8,000 feet MSL) and there was a strong southerly flow at lower altitudes ahead of the advancing cold front. Most stations below that lower layer were reporting ceilings between 2000 and 3000 MSL.

Sunset happened about 2205Z and by the time I was over Baltimore it was dark. The usual routine is to cross KBWI at 6,000 (headed direct to OTT). ATC will give me a descent to 4,000 a few minutes after crossing over their major airport. So I was not surprised to hear: "Skylane 31 Sierra, descend and maintain 4,000. No weather or traffic information available at Potomac; Washington National is reporting overcast 2,700, wind 170 at 10. Expect the visual approach at VKX."

I expected that, but I wasn't entirely happy with it. Washington National (KDCA) is 7.5 miles NNW of Potomac Airfield. Controllers will usually look at what's happening at DCA and surmise that things can't be too different over at VKX. I have learned that DCA weather is a poor predictor of conditions at VKX. So, I responded to the nice Potomac Approach controller: "Skylane 31 Sierra, thanks for that weather, could you please tell me the current wind and ceiling at Andrews?" That got me, "Sure. Stand by."

I already knew the answers, courtesy of XM Weather on the Garmin GPSmap 396. Andrews AFB is 5.5 miles northeast of VKX and has weather that is much more likely than DCA's to be consistent with conditions at VKX. KADW was reporting a ceiling of 1,900 feet MSL. The Minimum Vectoring Altitude between OTT and VKX is 1,700. Not great for trying the visual approach.

The next transmission from the controller was, "Skylane 31 Sierra, Andrews is reporting a 1,900 foot overcast, wind 160 at 8. Ummm, we'll get you down to 1,700 down there and if you don't have good ground contact we'll run you out for the approach."

My answer was, "That sounds good to me, 31 Sierra."

Just before reaching OTT I was cleared to descend to 2,000 feet MSL, and the controller asked for flight conditions. "In and out of the bases," was the response. Then he asked, "I'll get you down to 1,700 in a mile or two - do you still want to try the visual?"

"I'd like the RNAV 6 approach to VKX, please," was the obvious decision. Twenty minutes later, after a routine approach (see below), I was on the ground at home.

Airports all have their own little micro-climates. Even a little local knowledge can be very helpful. The IFR system offers a full toolkit for these kinds of situations and one might as well use it.

Courtesy of FlightAware, here's the track for the 2.9 hour flight:

Automation-Induced Complacency

Image shamelessly stolen from NASA ASRS Callback #315

It would seem that you can't conduct an aviation-related blog without commenting on the saga of the peripatetic Northwest Flight 188. You know - the one where the flight crew reportedly went "Heads-Down-and-Locked" over their personal laptops while 'George' flew the airplane past the intended destination (KMSP) at FL370 and on for another 150 miles into the wilds of darkest Wisconsin. It was the Mother of all LOSA (Loss of Situational Awareness) incidents.

Now it's reported that the FAA has issued an emergency revocation order for the certificates of the Captain and First Officer involved. They can appeal the order to the NTSB but based on the circumstances reported in the press their prospects of continued employment as professional aviators appear bleak. Perhaps that's as it should be. It is certainly easy to imagine ways in which their inattention to duty could have led to catastrophe. But at the same time, I'd suggest that to a degree they were set up.

Based on what's been revealed to date, it looks like this flight crew fell victim to Automation-Induced Complacency. And this is not in any way a new problem. Consider the following quote:

"Another problem concerns the new automatic systems which are coming into service with newer aircraft and being added to older aircraft. Flightcrews become more reliant upon the functioning of sophisticated avionics systems, and their associated automation, to fly the airplane. This is increasingly so as the reliability of such equipment improves. Basic control of the aircraft and supervision of the flight's progress by instrument indications diminish as other more pressing tasks in the cockpit attract attention because of the overreliance on such automatic equipment.

Pilot's testimony indicated that dependence on the reliability and capability of the autopilot is actually greater than anticipated in its early design and its certification. This is particularly true in the cruise phase of flight....

In any event, good pilot practices and company training dictate that one pilot will monitor the progress of the aircraft at all times and under all circumstances."[emphasis added]

Those words come from an NTSB report dated 14 June 1973. The subject is the crash, on the preceding 29 December, of Eastern Airlines Flight 401 in the Florida Everglades. That was the L-1011 aboard which the entire crew was busy troubleshooting an indicator light problem while the airplane - with the autopilot inadvertantly disengaged - spiralled slowly down into the swamp.

And here we are, 36 years later, with another crew allowing themselves to be distracted to the point where no one was flying the airplane! Fortunately, this time nobody died.

"During the long ages between dawn and sunrise, I'm thankful we didn't make the Spirit of St. Louis a stable plane. The very instability which makes it difficult to fly blind or hold an accurate course at night now guards me against excessive errors. It's again a case of the plane and me compensating for each other."
-- Charles A. Lindbergh, "The Spirit of St. Louis"

Flying in the Lone Eagle's day was the polar opposite of today. The problems revolved around task saturation, i.e., there was too much to do. But aviators like Lindbergh and Doolittle and Rickenbacker nonetheless excelled. It was an environment where human beings could, with training, do well. Yet, as aviation matured, new capabilities of pilot and aircraft were needed. Necessity brought forth the autopilot.

"I pay those guys to fly, so let them fly. I'll be damned if I'll pay them to just sit there."
-- reportedly, Eddie Rickenbacker, CEO Eastern Airlines. Eastern aircraft were some of the last to be equipped with autopilots, his pilots saying if it wasn't in Captain Eddie's SPAD he won't buy it. Quoted in 'Human Factors in Multi-Crew Flight Operations' by Orlady & Orlady.

In spite of Capt. Eddie's resistance, flight systems automation has become ubiquitous and now it looks like problems are arising from crews having not enough to do. The terms in current vogue for the flight crew are PF and PM - that's Pilot Flying and Pilot Monitoring. But for long stretches in cruise there is precious little flying for the PF to do, and the PM is probably, like all humans, rather poor at monitoring.

In a 2002 paper entitled Enhancing Flight-crew Monitoring Skills Can Increase Flight Safety, Capts. Robert Sumwalt & Ronald Thomas and NASA's Dr. Key Dismukes point out that:

"...although monitoring may seem intuitive and easy, in reality, continuous and effective monitoring is not natural. In fact, it is most natural to do things as you think of them, instead of delaying them until later. However...an effective monitoring strategy involves sometimes delaying some tasks until less vulnerable periods. It is also not natural to stop doing something in the middle of the task to scan instruments (monitor). Instead, people prefer to complete the task before stopping. However, effective monitoring requires a more-or-less constant scan of instruments."

And, quoting an earlier Air Transport Assn. Automation Sub-Committee paper:

"...serious errors do not occur frequently which can lead to boredom and complacency. 'A low probability, high-criticality error is exactly the one that must be caught and corrected.'" [emphasis added]

And so we have this highly experienced flight crew on NWA188 whiling away the hours from KSAN to KMSP with 'George' doing all the work. Ostensibly, of course, they are "monitoring systems" but you can only devote so much attention to static displays and creeping moving maps. So, being human and fallible, they turn their attention to "more pressing matters" -- like the arcane new pilot scheduling software. And the share of their attention devoted to "monitoring" their progress through the night sky falls to...zero. It's just unlikely enough to be the truth.

I think of the times I've been humming along over eastern Pennsylvania with 'George' in control of N631S and the GPS in control of 'George' and me, both the PF and the PM, with no flying to do and not a lot to monitor. If there were a distraction available, I might be vulnerable. So, while I can't excuse the guys up front on NWA188, I can see how they got in trouble.

The airlines may want to look into ways to keep the flight crew engaged with the airplane during extended low-workload periods. There is, for example, the concept of Adaptive Automation which uses novel approaches to task allocation and task partitioning to be responsive to changes in workload and operator behavior. The system could deliberately cede tasks to the pilots during low-workload periods simply to maintain a minimum level of operator involvement.

For my part, I think I'll just continue to keep Rule 1 in mind: Always fly the airplane!

Post #100

As it happens, I put up the first post on this blog eight months ago - 25 February 09. This being the 100th post, I seem to have been holding forth 12.5 times each month.

According to data collected by statcounter.com, there have been roughly 14 visits/day over the last two weeks. A sizable percentage of the visitors are responding to search-engine hits (mostly Google).

A few posts in the archive seem to be "best sellers", as they keep getting Google-inspired visits. In order of "popularity", these include:

• Is a 100LL Replacement Really Coming?
  
• Landing Light Switches
  
• Circuit Breaker Safety
  
• I LOVE Air Traffic Controllers
  

Statcounter.com also provides the geographic location and IP address of visitors. You get to know the folks who come back more than a few times. I seem to have "fans" in (among other places) South Bend, IN (someone who works the midnight shift, judging from the times he/she visits), Stillwater, OK (possibly two folks, one of whom logs on from OSU), Overland Park, KS and Hammond, IN. To these folks and others who have taken the time to stop by and read the blog, I'd like to say, "Thanks!"

About Last Night...

I took note previously of the TFR attendant to the President's visit to Stamford, CT. For my departure from KBDR (which was in the area covered by the "outer ring" TFR but outside the core "no-fly" area), the whole thing was pretty much transparent to the IFR user. The only change from usual practices occurred when Clearance Delivery asked that I give them a "heads-up" call five minutes before I was ready to taxi so that they could coordinate the departure. That's not normally needed.

After departure everything proceeded as usual. I did hear one conversation wherein ATC was helping a pilot who'd intended to go to KHPN figure out where he wanted to land to wait for that airport to open to General Aviation traffic. (White Plains was in the area of the "core" TFR.)

With the approach of the cold front (something that seems to be happening on a seven-day cycle timed to provide the week's most interesting weather on Friday evening), I got to fly through the schmoo over most of eastern Pennsylvania and on down to Baltimore.

Just past KBWI at 6000 feet, N631S and I flew through a rather small but fairly intense piece of weather isolated from the bulk of the stuff, with about three minutes of moderate precip and light-to-moderate turbulence. Scanning the dials, I noticed a loss of air speed. Glancing over at the manifold pressure gage, I saw that it was down to about 18 inches instead of the 22 or so I'd expect at that altitude. Aha! Carburetor icing! The carb inlet air temp gage was just below the top of the yellow arc at about 4 degrees C. I immediately applied full carb heat. The engine went a little bit rough and there was one "hiccup" as, presumably, a piece of ice broke loose and passed through the engine as a slug of water. But in less than a minute the manifold pressure was back to expected levels and the aircraft accelerated to the speed I'd been getting before. I reduced the carb heat to just the amount needed to keep the gage out of the yellow and had no further issue.

The good news is that the area right around home had good VMC, so the visual approach into VKX was on offer. As a minor complication to end my day, the Potomac Approach controller needed to keep me high until quite close in and I wound up with a "slam-dunk" approach. From 2000 feet and 2+ miles out, I wasn't able to get down for a normal approach to landing so I wound up executing a go-around. Good practice.