Just Because You Can Doesn't Mean You Should

As we move deeper into autumn, the atmosphere reaches into its bag of wintry tricks. The weather of last Friday provided an example of what Gordon Lightfoot called "the witch of November".

The driver was a deep low sited over northern Quebec that was wrapping up an impressive cyclonic flow. In the northeast and mid-Atlantic states a low level jet of air paralleled the associated cold front and furnished truly impressive winds aloft.

This wasn't an unforecasted surprise. The system could be watched for days as it crossed the continent and the meteorological models did an accurate job of predicting where all the pieces would be at the end of the week. Thus, I knew by mid-week that my usual trip from Connecticut to the DC area was seriously in doubt.

At left, a depiction of the wind field at 6,000 feet for about 20Z on Friday afternoon. You can see that the wind from the southwest was predicted to be about 60 knots over southern New England, falling off to 50 knots over northern New Jersey and "only" 40 knots over eastern Pennsylvania. If I decided to fly at that time I could expect (based on a true airspeed of about 135 knots) to achieve about 75 knots over the ground for the early part of the trip, and maybe as much as 95 knots as I approached Reading. I didn't think that would be any fun.

For what is usually about a 2 hour and 20 minute trip, the very accurate algorithm at FltPlan.com was predicting an enroute time of over three hours:

And just to complete the picture, the Friday morning Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) for Bridgeport was a bit sporty:

KBDR 011143Z 0112/0212 21018G35KT 5SM -SHRA BR SCT010 BKN020 
     WS020/22060KT
TEMPO 0113/0115 23025G40KT 3SM SHRA
FM011600 23014G25KT P6SM VCSH SCT020 SCT030 BKN080
FM012000 24012KT P6SM SCT050 
FM020100 VRB05KT P6SM SCT050=

For the time I'd consider departing, showers with gusty southwest winds would be on the menu, and the winds aloft would still be very strong. The good news: for the overnight period (after 01Z) there would be light, variable winds, good visibility and only a scattered cloud layer around 5,000 feet.

Hey, it's only wind. No convection in the forecast, freezing level up around 9,000 feet. I could make the flight. But as the wise adage says, "Just because you can doesn't mean you should." I decided to opt for a "Dawn Patrol" departure early on Saturday morning.

The forecast for 12Z Saturday morning showed the deep low moved off to the north, the cold front with its associated weather offshore to the east and a weak secondary cold front approaching from the west. I filed for an 0930Z departure (5:30 AM local) and asked for routing over JFK and south across New Jersey.

With the departure of the weather to the east and north, the winds aloft moderated quite a bit. From the depiction at left, the winds at 6,000 feet over New England and down to the mid-Atlantic were forecast to be mostly westerly at about 25 knots by 12Z. A lot better! So I set an early alarm and got myself to the airport by about 5:20 AM.

Now, fltplan.com was anticipating a half-hour less time enroute than the previous afternoon. However, I was disappointed (but not particularly surprised) to learn, when I queried the system before going out to the airplane, that ATC had assigned the usual eastern PA routing rather than the coastal route I'd requested. That would probably add 10 or 15 minutes, and it would force me up to 8,000 feet where I'd have to be careful about icing in clouds.

I seemed to be completely alone on the field. The control tower was closed until 6:30 AM. I pre-flighted N631S in the dark, and checked the weather. The automated weather system was reporting this:

KBDR 020952Z AUTO 02004KT 10SM BKN075 11/08 A2967=

A light wind from the northeast, good visibility under a broken ceiling at 7,500 feet. I started the engine and taxied to the hold short line for Runway 6. From there, I called New York Approach: "November 631 Sierra, on the ground at Bridgeport, looking for my IFR clearance to Victor Kilo X-Ray."

The approach controller read my clearance, asked which runway I'd be using, and released me for departure. N631S's wheels were off of the runway at 0957Z. After takeoff, she had N631S and I climb to 6,000 feet and headed us west. Soon we were transferred to the next sector and that controller said, "Skylane 631 Sierra, climb and maintain 8,000 feet."

Thinking there was no harm in asking, I said, "New York, 631 Sierra wonders if there is any chance for 6,000 as a final altitude."

The controller replied, "No, that's an 8,000 foot route. I can let you stay at 6,000 for another 10 miles but then you'll have to climb to 8."

I responded, "Thanks for that. I originally filed for 6,000 on another route; I was thinking there's a bit less headwind at 6.'

There was a pause. Then, "31 Sierra, did you file for a DIXIE route?" I said "Yes" and she replied, "Let me see if I can work that out for you. Stand by."

In less than a minute, the controller came back with, "Skylane 31 Sierra, we're working on a route for you. For now turn left to heading 190, vector to Kennedy, and I'll have your new route for you in a couple minutes."

Have I mentioned that I love Air Traffic Controllers? I thanked the lady profusely, and by the time I was across Long Island Sound and over Queens, she had an excellent clearance for me: radar vectors to DIXIE V16 ENO V374 OTT thence direct to destination. Trust me...that's a good one. The next controller put N631S and I direct to JFK and then direct to DIXIE. South of JFK the ceiling lowered a bit so we were in clouds at 6,000 but the air temperature was well above freezing.

New York handed me off to McGuire approach and I requested a descent to 4,000 feet hoping for a bit less wind (and hence more ground speed) and a better view below the clouds. That all worked out nicely and our passage through Atlantic City and Dover airspace was uneventful. Soon I was talking to Potomac Approach. Almost home!

Potomac said, "Advise when you have the weather at VKX." I said, "Wilco" and tuned a radio to the frequency for the automated system at Potomac Airfield. Three clicks on the push-to-talk switch gets you the weather at the field. But to my dismay, the robotic voice reported "Visibility one-half mile." Rats! VKX is in a small valley, and sometimes the fog does linger there. Getting back to the approach controller, I advised him of the situation and said I'd like to go have a look, and if conditions really were prohibitive for landing I'd have to divert or go hold somewhere. He said, "You can expect that."

Soon, I heard the Potomac controller say, to a pilot I couldn't hear, "Thanks for the pilot report." Then to me, "631 Sierra, did you hear that?" "Negative," I replied.

"A pilot who just departed from VKX said that it isn't nearly as bad as the automated system is saying." Great news! I said, "Thanks for that, I should be in good shape then." And I was. The photo at left was taken from the taxiway as I exited the runway after landing at 1210Z (2:13 enroute). As you see, there were just a few wisps of ground fog.

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"We'd like the visual..."

Since the unfortunate landing short of Asiana 214 at KSFO on July 6th, there has been much comment on the difficulty that some heavy iron drivers may have when confronted with a visual approach (as opposed to a coupled instrument approach where the automation does the heavy lifting). This would seem not, however, to be a universal preference as the following exchange heard last night near Joint Base Andrews at about 21Z illustrates:

• Air Force 1: "Potomac, Air Force One is 10 to the west at 10,000 on the FRDMM TWO arrival."
  
• Potomac Approach: "Air Force One, descend and maintain 6,000 feet. Say approach requested.
  
• Air Force 1: "Air Force One descending to 6,000...and we'd like the visual approach to 19 Right."
  

They had the boss on board, but with good Visual Meteorological Conditions (VMC) prevailing, I guess the crew of Air Force One felt confident about handling the visual approach at KADW.

And may I add that I'm proud to share the airspace with them.

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Was that you, Sarah?

We (meaning N631S and I) had to deal with some weather on departure from Bridgeport (KBDR) this afternoon – which all went pretty well with the help of New York Approach. Thereafter the trip was routine, until we were south of Baltimore (KBWI). We were direct to Nottingham VOR (OTT), having been given a "heads-up" to depart OTT on a 250 heading and expect the visual approach at home plate (KVKX). We'd even been descended to 4,000 feet. Normal stuff.

That's when the nice controller said, "November 631 Sierra, descend and maintain 2,000, turn right to heading 240." It did sound a bit like my friend Sarah, but I didn't get a cheery, "Hi, Frank" so I don't know.

But at any rate, I smiled. From present position that 240 heading would take me right over Joint Base Andrews (KADW) and onto final for runway 24 at Potomac Field (KVKX). (See the plot at left, courtesy of FlightAware.com.) The wind was fairly strong from the west and 24 was going to be favored, so the shortcut across Andrews easily saved me 10 to 15 minutes. How nice is that? I keyed the mike and said, "31 Sierra hopes you'll pass my thanks along to the folks at Andrews." And that got the response, "We will!"

Visibility was fine, and from over the arrival ends of KADW's runways 1R and 1L I could see KVKX clearly. I reported that, and was cleared for the visual approach and invited to cancel IFR if I chose – which I did. The landing was uneventful.

So...an example of "safe, orderly and expeditious" handling on the part of Air Traffic Control (ATC). Just think, though, about what ATC had to do to save me those 15 minutes. The controller had to "have the flick" to the extent that she recognized, while handling the ongoing flow of air carrier aircraft into Washington National (KDCA), that little N631S would need to wind up on runway 24 at KVKX. She took the time to coordinate with Andrews so that I could be cleared to cross the south end of their airspace. And all of that was entirely on the controller's initiative. She could have just followed the path of least resistance by letting me continue to OTT, turn me southwest for a while and then head me in toward KVKX with a quick, "Report the field in sight." But that's not how she works.

I've heard General Aviation pilots complain about getting second-class service relative to the airlines. In my experience it's just not the case. If you bring your "A" game, and show the controller that you can respond competently, you and your "FLIB" will get professional service. Every time.

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Why KESN?

In my last post, I described a bit of a kerfuffle that resulted when the system misplaced my authorization to land at my home airfield, KVKX, lying as it does within the DC Flight Restricted Zone (FRZ). This required that I divert to an alternate airfield outside of the FRZ and I chose Easton, MD (KESN) as my safe harbor. In a comment to the post describing all of this, my friend Comrade Misfit asked, "Why Easton? Wouldn't it have been rather inconvenient to get home from the Eastern Shore if you couldn't have gotten the mess ironed out?"

I saw Miss Fit's comment a few hours ago and since, I've been reflecting on that decision. Why KESN, indeed? I think that the decision involved both conscious and sub-conscious factors that were focused, in the end, on ensuring that the pilot (i.e., me) did not wind up well behind the airplane.

N631S and I have been flying to and fro between the DC area and Connecticut for about five years. In that time, I've diverted at the south end to Manassas (KHEF) twice that I recall, and once to Easton (KESN). At the north end I've had two diversions to Bradley International (KBDL), one to Hartford-Brainerd (KHFD), two to Waterbury-Oxford (KOXC) and one to New Haven (KHVN). In every one of these cases, the diversion was due to weather. Each time I had at least 45 minutes, often an hour or more, to think over what was going to happen. Sure, I flew the ILS Runway 6 at KBDR, but I knew that the probability of making a landing was low, and I had 'Plan B' ready. Last Friday was a wholly different kettle of fish.

Friday afternoon, I was presented with a situation ("We're not going to be able to let you into the FRZ") that required a very short term resolution ("Say intentions"). There was no opportunity for an extended period of reflection and evaluation. It was all about, "OK, Frank, where are you gonna put the airplane?"

The first criterion was to divert to a field outside the FRZ that I was very familiar with. That reduced down to Manassas, Gaithersburg and Easton. Perhaps I could have made Freeway work, but I've never landed there and I'd have only minutes to familiarize myself with it's location and characteristics.

Of the fields I was familiar with, I immediately felt that Easton was the most attractive. From present position, just south of Baltimore, Easton was less than 15 minutes away. I was confident that the problem was some sort of foul-up in getting the right "secret code" in the remarks field of my flight plan, and a new flight plan would resolve the issue. If that was the case the diversion, with the need to file a new flight plan, would cost me an hour. Manassas was, on the other hand, a good 30 minutes away and probably represented at least a 90 minute delay. Gaithersburg would be worse.

What if the problem was something completely different? What if the system had "forgotten" me, and there was no way I was going to fly into the FRZ on this evening? Well, I knew I could rent a car at either Easton or Manassas. The FBO's at both fields are superbly helpful. The drive home to Alexandria from Manassas would be a bit over an hour. From Easton, about an hour and a half. I knew...I've done both.

Given my confidence that a new flight plan entered into the system would resolve the issue, and given that the drive from KESN was only a little longer than the drive from KHEF (if that proved necessary)...then KESN was the right choice for the divert. And that's what I told Potomac Approach I wanted to do.

All of that decision making occurred in about two minutes. Some of it happened at a sub-conscious level. I never really thought about any field that I was not already familiar with. Freeway (W00) and it's ilk were rejected without conscious reflection. I thought of KGAI and quickly passed on it. Manassas (KHEF) got 30 seconds of attention, and didn't compare well with Easton. And that was the end of the story. Easton it would be.

When I told the PCT controller that I wanted to divert to Easton, he was ready immediately with a vector. The GPS told me that N631S and I would arrive at KESN in about 12 minutes. But before half of that time had elapsed, I got the welcome news that the problem had been resolved and I could proceed into the FRZ and on to KVKX.

After I landed and put N631S away in the hangar, and talked to Potomac Approach, I felt fairly good about the whole exercise. I'd had to deal with an unexpected diversion, sort out the options and select a diversion field, prepare for an arrival at an unplanned destination, and then switch back to the originally planned terminus – all in a compressed time-frame. Throughout, I had good help from ATC, but I felt pretty good about my ability to keep all of the balls in the air.

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A Starring Role in "Security Theater"

Home Plate for N631S and myself in the DC area is Potomac Airfield (KVKX). It's one of the "Maryland 3" airports (along with College Park (KCGS) and Hyde Field (W32)) that reside within the Flight Restricted Zone (FRZ), a circle (more or less) of airspace with a 14 nautical mile radius surrounding the DCA VOR. (See chart at left, below.)

I fly from KVKX because it is very convenient to my home in Alexandria, VA. Gaining authorization to fly in and out of KVKX (and the FRZ) required a certain amount of jumping through hoops but once that was accomplished the whole program has been, as they say, transparent to the user. Until tonight.

Here's how it works (and I'm going to confine this discussion to IFR operations. VFR has its own idiosyncrasies.) Whether outbound or inbound, I file an ordinary IFR flight plan by telephone through the Lockheed-Martin Flight Service Station (FSS) in Leesburg, using a toll-free number dedicated to FRZ operations. Sometimes the FSS Specialist that answers the telephone is in Raleigh, but that makes no difference.

I go through the normal IFR Flight Plan sequence with the Specialist and then he/she asks me, "Are you familiar with the procedures governing operations in the Washington, DC Special Flight Rules Area and the Flight Restricted Zone?" I then say, "Yes, I am!" The next question is, "What is your PIN?"

All pilots that have been "vetted" to operate into and out of the FRZ and the "Maryland 3" airports have been issued a Personal Identification Number (PIN). When I give my PIN to the FSS Specialist, he/she verifies it against a master list, and if it agrees with his/her list then he/she will (one fervently hopes) enter certain appropriate remarks into the "Remarks" field of my IFR flight plan. Then, when ATC pulls up the Flight Plan as I approach the FRZ (in the inbound case), the remarks make it clear that I am authorized to enter the FRZ and land at KVKX. It all works very nicely. Except when the remarks aren't there.

Which brings us to tonight, over Baltimore. It had been an uneventful flight down from Connecticut, and I was looking forward, as I crossed over the top of KBWI, to getting home. Then, I got a radio call:

• PCT: "N631 Sierra, Potomac?"
  
• Me: "631 Sierra."
  
• PCT: "Uh...just to let you know, there's some sort of problem with the remarks in your flight plan and we're trying to work it out...but we may not be able to let you into the FRZ...so you may want to start thinking about an alternate. For now, continue on your heading and maintain 6,000."
  
• Me: "...OK...present heading, maintain 6,000, 631 Sierra."
  

I continued southbound toward the Nottingham VOR (OTT), and thought about options. Easton, MD (KESN) was the best choice if I had to land outside the FRZ. From there I could call FSS and sort out the problem and then it would be a short flight back home. Then:

• PCT: "631 Sierra, we're not going to be able to let you into the FRZ. Say intentions?"
  
• Me: "I'd like to divert to Easton."
  
• PCT: "Skylane 31 Sierra, fly heading 160, direct Easton when able."
  

I turned to the east and started to gather up frequencies and such for an arrival at KESN (see track above, courtesy of FlightAware.com). Just as I had all of that more or less squared away, the controller came back to me:

• PCT: "631S, we've got it worked out! Turn right to heading 250, descend to 2,000, vectors for KVKX. And for what it's worth from my end, I apologize for all this."
  
• Me: "31 Sierra, right turn to 250, down to 2,000, and no apology needed. I really appreciate you folks going the extra mile to get this cleared up."
  

The remaining 15 minutes of the flight were uneventful. N631S and I landed at KVKX; I put the airplane to bed in the hangar and on the way out I stopped to give Potomac Approach a call.

• PCT: "Mount Vernon approach."
  
• Me: "Hi, I'm the pilot of N631S; there was some confusion about the remarks for FRZ entry on my IFR flight plan and I'm wondering what went wrong."
  
• PCT: "It was an FSS mistake. I pulled up your strip and the remarks weren't there. I know you come down every Friday, so I called NCRC (National Capital Region Coordination) and said 'Where are his remarks'? They didn't have the remarks. I got the supervisor involved and I guess he checked the tapes and he called back and said, 'he's OK, he should have the remarks.'
  
• Me: "I guess they went back and listened to the tapes from this morning when I filed."
  
• PCT: "Yeah, you filed at 12:08(Z), right? That's what they did. Again, I'm really sorry about all this."
  
• Me: "And again, I really thank you folks for taking the trouble to get this squared away."
  

Have I mentioned that I love Air Traffic Controllers? Tomorrow I'm going to give LockMart FSS a call to see if they have any ideas for avoiding a recurrence of the problem.

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Summer Fun

Yesterday's trip from Connecticut down to the DC area was sufficiently entertaining to warrant a post here. Also, it gives me an opportunity to again express appreciation for the amazing skill and willing team-effort on the part of the controllers who shepard N631S and me along our route and keep us out of trouble. In this instance, particular kudos go to the folks at Harrisburg Approach and Potomac Consolidated TRACON (PCT).

I'd been watching the weather map for several days and the synoptic picture forecast for Friday afternoon wasn't very nice. A cold front associated with a deep trough was approaching from the West and was forecast to stall along the coast on Friday. Conditions would be ripe for lots of convective activity. Thus, the Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) for Washington's National Airport (KDCA) was unsurprising:

TAF AMD KDCA 281852Z 2819/2918 19010KT 5SM TSRA BKN050CB
TEMPO 2819/2820 VRB30KT 2SM +TSRA OVC030CB
FM282200 25007KT P6SM VCTS BKN050CB  
FM290000 27005KT P6SM VCTS BKN050CB 
FM290100 27005KT P6SM BKN050 
FM290400 VRB03KT P6SM SCT130
FM291600 21007KT P6SM BKN050=

I was planning a departure at about 1930Z, so the period of heavy thundershowers (+TSRA) was expected to be over well before my arrival, but the prevailing weather for the whole evening was calling for thundershowers in the vicinity. The TAF's for intermediate locations enroute looked pretty much the same.

I decided to depart anyway, watch the weather carefully, and if necessary, land before things got boisterous and wait it out – overnight if necessary. Despite the highly convective environment, this was "air-mass" weather, not frontal activity. The organized lines of storms accompanying a front defy penetration, while the more scattered weather in store in this case often offers a way through if approached with an abundance of caution, lots of information and plenty of fuel.

Everything was peaceful for the first hour or so, but westbound, passing Allentown (KABE) and approaching the turn to the south onto V39 toward Lancaster VOR (LRP), the NEXRAD display showed that things would soon become interesting. Allentown Approach handed us off to Harrisburg Approach a few miles east of FLOAT intersection. Checking in with Harrisburg, after the normal dialog involving altimeter settings, I asked, "Harrisburg, Skylane 31 Sierra is wondering what weather you're painting along Victor 39 to Lancaster and then south towards Baltimore?"

The controller's reply was, "Everything looks good as far as Lancaster, then there's a band of precipitation, heavy to extreme, from south of Lancaster and to the northeast about 50 miles."

I then asked, "Have you got a work-around for that band? I don't want to go and paint myself into a corner down there."

This drew a "Skylane 31 Sierra, stand by," which meant that I had him thinking about the problem. After a pause of about a minute, the controller came back to me with, "Skylane 31 Sierra, it looks like after Lancaster, Victor 143 down toward the BRINS intersection will keep you clear of the weather. Then you can go direct Baltimore." It was my turn to say, "Stand by." I grabbed the Low Altitude chart from the seat next to me, quickly flipped it open to the panel depicting Lancaster, found V143 (which departs LRP on about a 248 heading) and traced it to the Southwest, and located BRINS. I compared that with the NEXRAD depiction and then pressed the Push-to-Talk switch. "Harrisburg, 31 Sierra likes the looks of Victor 143 after Lancaster. I think that's a plan."

After another minute or two I heard, "Skylane 31 Sierra, you are cleared present position direct to Lancaster, Victor 143 to HYPER intersection, then direct to Baltimore, direct to destination. HYPER is a little further, you'll probably be able to turn toward Baltimore before you get there." I read that clearance back, ending with a sincere "Thanks very much." Looking at the weather depiction and noting that the storm cells were moving to the East, it appeared that I'd be in the clear all the way down V143 – and that indeed proved to be the case.

Harrisburg handed us off to Potomac Approach and N631S and I motored along Victor 143, skirting the Northwest edge of the weather. The Potomac controller gave me the customary amendment to my routing, "After Baltimore, direct Nottingham then direct destination," and about ten miles short of BRINS he gave me a 220 heading, adding, "Turn east direct Baltimore when able. Just let me know when you make the turn." It looked to me like it would be about 20 miles before that would be a fine idea.

I turned N631S toward Baltimore, still in the clear and keeping the weather well off to our left. About 25 miles West of Baltimore, the PCT controller said, "Skylane 31 Sierra, there's some weather moving in to the South of Baltimore; that direct Nottingham route may not work. I'd suggest you tell the next controller you'll need to deviate to the East to stay clear of that weather." I acknowledged that with thanks, and got "Contact Potomac on 119.85."

After checking in with the next sector I requested a left-of-course deviation for weather avoidance. She replied with, "31 Sierra, do you have weather radar on board?" I said, "31 Sierra has a NEXRAD weather display."

The controller then said, "Go ahead and navigate around the weather to the east. Just let me know what turns you're making." I said, "31 Sierra is going to go from present position on a 160 heading for a while, then I'll go direct Nottingham when able." This drew, "31 Sierra, that's approved."

I kept N631S on the 160 heading for 12 or 15 miles, descending first to 4,000 feet and then to 3,000. When I could see past the weather to my right I turned toward Nottingham and said (in response to the controller's query) that I'd like the visual approach to Runway 6 at KVKX.

As you can see from the picture at left, that was a fairly enthusiastic patch of weather off N631S's right wing. The overhanging cloud shelf was pretty dramatic as well.

And here's a half-minute of video recorded in about the same spot:

A few miles to the south, the way was clear for a turn toward home plate and the landing at Potomac Airfield was uneventful. It took about a half-hour to get N631S put to bed in the hangar, and as I was driving off of the airfield the heavens opened and gave forth an impressive deluge, leaving me thinking that timing is everything.

All things considered, the conditions for this flight were pretty challenging. Good on-board weather awareness (i.e., NEXRAD) was a 'no-go' item but the real essentials were a creative and savvy controller at Harrisburg approach who quickly developed a workable re-route, and a couple of smart, and above all flexible controllers at PCT who made it possible for me to complete the trip safely. My profound thanks to all.

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A Fairly Bad Week (Part 2 of 2)

As mentioned at the end of the previous post, the forecast on Friday morning foretold a large ridge of warm air arriving in the East, bringing rain but no risk of icing.

The low centered over Chicago at 12Z (left) was headed eastward with it's associated occluded front at roughly the speed of a runaway freight train. I could expect a long, hard slog against stiff headwinds for the westbound portions of my trip and anticipated that ceilings and visibilities would deteriorate some time after 00Z, making an early departure advisable. The computer was telling me to anticipate about 2:40 enroute so I planned on a 20Z departure to be in the DC area well before 23Z. The relevant Terminal Forecasts (TAF's) reflected these expectations:

TAF AMD KDCA 111844Z 1119/1218 21005KT P6SM -RA OVC028
FM112200 16006KT 3SM -RA OVC015 
FM120000 17006KT 2SM BR OVC008 
FM120600 00000KT 1/2SM FG OVC003 
FM121500 11003KT 5SM BR BKN015 OVC035=

TAF AMD KADW 1120/1223 16009KT 9000 -SHRA SCT010 OVC014 WS020/21042KT QNH3004INS
TEMPO 1121/1202 3200 -SHRA OVC009
BECMG 1205/1206 23006KT 3200 BR SCT010 BKN020 QNH3004INS
BECMG 1208/1209 27005KT 1600 BR FEW020 QNH3008INS
BECMG 1210/1211 28005KT 0800 FG FEW100 QNH3008INS
BECMG 1215/1216 30009KT 4800 BR FEW180 QNH3008INS
BECMG 1216/1217 32009KT 9999 NSW FEW180 QNH3008INS T17/1219Z T05/1211Z 
AMD 112023 LIMITED METWATCH 1201 TIL 1211=

The KDCA forecast issued just before my departure was calling for good visibility in light rain and light southerly winds under a 1500 foot overcast on arrival – no problem for the RNAV Rwy 6 approach into KVKX. Even if the conditions forecast to prevail after 00Z were to arrive early I'd be looking at two miles visibility under an 800 foot overcast – still acceptable. The weather wasn't forecast to get really bad until 06Z.

As a cross-check, I looked at the forecast prepared by the Air Force met watch for Andrews AFB. They were advertising the same light southerly winds, with a couple of miles visibility under a 1400 foot ceiling through 05Z with brief periods of 1/2 mile visibility and 900 foot ceiling. Also not too bad. One notable feature for the Andrews forecast was the "WS020/21042KT" group. That's a wind shear warning projecting wind at 2000 feet from 210 degrees at 42 knots. Not in itself a problem but worthy of note.

N631S and I were off the ground within minutes of 20Z and on our way. The clearance routed us from KBDR westward to Sparta VOR (SAX) then south to Solberg (SBJ), west again to East Texas (ETX) then south via Lancaster (LRP) and Baltimore (BAL) toward home. As expected, progress to the west was very slow with ground speeds between 85 and 95 knots (while true airspeed was about 140 knots). This implied a headwind component of about 45 to 50 knots.

About an hour into the flight I checked the weather at Washington National and didn't like what I saw:

SPECI KDCA 112116Z 22003KT 1 3/4SM -DZ BR OVC008 06/05 A3020 RMK AO2 P0000=

That 800 foot ceiling was three hours early and that suggested conditions in the DC area were deteriorating more quickly than forecast. This was not good. If the trend continued I might be unable to land at KVKX and have to divert to an alternate. My filed alternate was Manassas (KHEF), which had been legal when I filed. But Manassas was to the west, "up-weather", and if DCA was going down the tubes HEF would probably be at least as bad.

There was nothing for it but to press on and see what I'd have to deal with in the destination area. And as expected, N631S and I passed Baltimore and were heading south to the Nottingham VOR (OTT) at about 2140Z. That's about when the Potomac Approach controller asked, "Skylane 31 Sierra, what are your intentions?" At that point the weather looked grim:

SPECI KDCA 112142Z 20003KT 1SM R01/P6000FT -RA BR OVC006
07/05 A3018 RMK AO2 DZE39RAB39 P0000=

SPECI KADW 112151Z AUTO 00000KT 1SM R01L/P6000FT -DZ BR VV007
06/05 A3016 RMK AO2 DZB2145 SLP216

METAR KHEF 112155Z 17003KT 3/4SM BR OVC003 06/06 A3015=

The reports for DCA and ADW implied marginal conditions at best for VKX. The minima for the RNAV Rwy 6 approach at VKX are 680-1 (i.e., the approach requires 1 statute mile flight visibility and the Decision Height is 680 feet AGL). The METARs for DCA and ADW were not encouraging and my filed alternate (HEF) was looking none too good, even for an ILS approach.

I responded to the controller's query with: "I guess 31 Sierra's intentions are to try the RNAV 6 approach at VKX."

He replied, "A Pilatus just tried it and missed and he diverted to Easton. There's a Colombia 350 inbound for the approach. He'll get there before you; I'll keep you informed on how he makes out."

I thanked the controller and continued to motor on – slowly – toward OTT. Before too long, the controller was back. He told me, "31 Sierra, that Colombia missed at VKX and has diverted to Manassas. What do you want to do?"

I thought about it for a few seconds. First, two aircraft had missed at VKX, and the weather wasn't going to get better. I saw absolutely no point in trying to get in there. But where to go? I asked the controller, "Approach, 31 Sierra, can you say the weather at Manassas?"

He answered quickly, "300 and 3/4 in mist, wind 170 at 3."

That was doable but not great – especially if the trend was worsening. I asked, "Approach, 31 Sierra, could you say current conditions at Easton?"

The reply, after a few seconds, was, "Easton is reporting 7 miles, 1300 overcast, wind calm."

Sold! I said, "Approach, 31 Sierra would like to divert to Easton."

The immediate reply was, "November 631 Sierra is cleared to the Easton airport via radar vectors. Turn left to 050 and maintain 3,000 feet." A moment later, "31 Sierra, you can expect the ILS for Runway 4 at Easton."

I'd already descended to 3,000 feet on the way south from Baltimore, so I turned to the northeast and bid VKX farewell for the evening. As I rolled out on the 050 heading my groundspeed went from the low 90's to 173 knots. Remember that wind shear group in the Andrews TAF? A 40+ knot tailwind at 2,000 feet was going to make for a sporty ILS approach.

In what seemed like no time at all the controller said, "Skylane 31 Sierra, turn right to 080, descend and maintain 2,000 until intercepting the localizer. Cleared ILS 4 approach at Easton."

I acknowledged the approach clearance and got down to 2,000 feet as the localizer needle centered. I configured 631S for the ILS...manifold pressure 15", 10 flaps, indicated airspeed 90 or 100 knots, pitch for about 500 feet per minute descent...and watched as the glideslope indicator plunged toward the bottom of the instrument. With the tailwind, my ground speed was still 135 knots. I reduced the power further and pitched for 1,000 fpm descent and the glideslope began to creep back up.

I was still a couple dots high on the glide slope when we broke out at about 1,000 feet. There was that beautiful long runway at KESN, just where it belonged. I pitched up to slow to full flap extension speed and deployed all of the flaps and then did one of those "helicopter" descents that the 182 is so good at. We flared and touched down on the 1,000 foot touchdown zone markings. The tower asked where I was parking and I told them I needed an FBO and was unfamiliar. They advised me to turn left at the end of the runway onto Maryland Air's ramp.

I found the ramp, shut down, and walked over to the FBO – which proved to be locked up tight. So I returned to '31S and called the tower controller on the radio. Did he know of anyone that could help a poor wandering pilot on a dismal night? He said he'd call the Maryland Air after-hours number and see if they could help. Very soon he came back and told me they'd said to stand by, someone would be there soon.

In about 15 minutes, Bob from Maryland Air showed up to rescue me. He'd interrupted his Friday evening to open up the FBO and issue me a rental car for the hour-and-a-half drive home. And so I was on my way, soon to be done with a long and trying week.

My friend Sarah, who's a controller at Potomac TRACON, said in a comment to the last post that, "I was working approach that day and worked the first guy into (and right back out of) VKX. I almost got to say hi to you, but then watched you fly off my scope. Good call! That weather was no joke. Can't wait to hear how it all ended... :)"

Well, Sarah, there you have it.

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Waiting Out the Fog

Last Monday I was concerned about whether N631S and I would be able to land at Bridgeport's Sikorsky Memorial Airport at the end of our northbound flight. Just over a week earlier the field had been extensively flooded by the surge from Hurricane Sandy. The ILS equipment and the VOR were damaged and out of service. The forecast on offer when I got up didn't look too bad but just a bit worse and the ceiling could go below the minimums for the available RNAV approaches – around 400 feet.

TAF AMD KBDR 120840Z 1209/1306 00000KT 2SM BR BKN007
       TEMPO 1209/1212 1SM BR 
       FM121400 20006KT 5SM HZ SCT015 BKN025 
       FM121600 20010G17KT P6SM SCT025 BKN100 
       FM130300 20012KT 5SM BR BKN025=

Winds calm, visibility one to two miles in mist with a broken 700 foot ceiling; forecast to improve at about my ETA to five miles in haze with scattered clouds at 1,500 and the ceiling up to 2,500 feet. Really, a good enough forecast to depart on. I checked the current conditions at KBDR just before leaving.

SPECI KBDR 121147Z 19004KT 1 3/4SM BR OVC005 11/11 A3047=

A mile and three quarters with a 500 foot ceiling. Consistent with the forecast, and good enough for the RNAV Runway 24 approach.

About 45 minutes after takeoff from KVKX I figured I'd better have a look at how conditions were developing up in Connecticut. So I checked the METAR for KBDR:

SPECI KBDR 121233Z 21006KT 3/4SM BR OVC003 12/11 A3047=

That's not so good. Both the visibility and ceiling had gone below the minimums for the RNAV approach. I hoped that this was just a passing bit of dense weather and that conditions would return to something more in line with the forecast. But hope is not a plan. I looked at the reported conditions at nearby airports so that I could start planning for a diversion. New Haven, Oxford, White Plains and Danbury were little better than Bridgeport. But Hartford-Brainard didn't look bad at all.

SPECI KHFD 121239Z 19005KT 3SM BR SCT009 11/09 A3046=

Three miles in mist, scattered clouds at 900 feet. OK, that's Plan B.

I kept watch on the situation as N631S and I motored northward. We crossed over KJFK at about 1340Z and the fog was much in evidence. The weather at Hartford continued to hold up quite nicely but the reports for Bridgeport just continued to get worse. The fact that the ILS was out-of-commission was irrelevant, as Bridgeport was below minimums even for that approach. It was small consolation, but the forecast for KBDR had finally been updated to reflect foggy reality:

TAF AMD KBDR 121347Z 1214/1312 19005KT 1/4SM FG VV002
       TEMPO 1215/1216 1/2SM FG 
       FM121600 19007KT 2SM BR BKN005
       TEMPO 1216/1217 4SM BR SCT005 
       FM121700 18010KT P6SM SCT025 BKN150 
       FM130100 17007KT 5SM BR BKN015 
       FM131000 22010G18KT 4SM -SHRA BR BKN015=

Visibility of 1/4 to 1/2 mile with vertical visibility of 200 feet for the next two hours; then improving to two miles and a 500 foot broken ceiling. The METARS for KBDR and KHFD were:

METAR KBDR 121352Z 20003KT M1/4SM FG VV001 12/12 A3047=
METAR KHFD 121353Z VRB04KT 5SM BR OVC009 12/11 A3046=

So, Hartford pretty good at 5 miles and a 900 foot overcast. Bridgeport not good at all at less than a 1/4 mile in fog with vertical visibility of 100 feet. I was handed off to the final approach sector controller and checked in with "New York Approach, Skylane 631 Sierra level 3,000, Sierra at Bridgeport, is anyone getting in over there?"

The controller answered, "Skylane 631 Sierra, Bridgeport altimeter 30.46, and no, a Pilatus just tried it and went missed. Whaddya want to do?"

In a triumph of wishful thinking over reality, I said, "Approach, 31 Sierra would like to go to BAYYS and do a couple turns in the hold, and see if things improve at Bridgeport."

"Skylane 31 Sierra, maintain 3000, cleared direct BAYYS intersection, hold as published."

BAYYS intersection is an initial approach fix for the RNAV Runway 24 approach into KBDR. I entered the hold there and pulled the power back. Perhaps in 15 or 20 minutes there would be some sign of improvement at KBDR. After a few turns around the hold, I checked with Bridgeport tower, who assured me that conditions were staying consistently bad. So I went back to New York Approach.

"Approach, Skylane 31 Sierra would like to divert to Hartford."

"31 Sierra, you're cleared to the Hartford-Brainard airport via present position to the Hartford VOR thence direct. Maintain 3,000."

I read that back and departed the hold to toward HFD. Very soon I was handed off to Bradley approach who cleared me direct to LAZRD, the IAF for the GPS Rwy 2 approach, circle to land Runway 20. Brainard Tower then kindly offered Runway 2 for landing with a few knots of tailwind and I taxied over to the ramp at Atlantic Aviation, where the nice folks provided a place to wait out the fog at Bridgeport.

I landed at Brainard Field a little after 10:00 AM local time and settled down to wait. The last timethat this happened I wound up leaving N631S at Oxford (KOXC) for a few days, as the fog at Bridgeport refused to dissipate. This time I was more fortunate. I watched the METARS issuing for KBDR and was happy to note some improvement.

SPECI KBDR 121541Z 00000KT 1SM BR OVC002 12/12 A3045=
SPECI KBDR 121550Z 00000KT 3SM BR BKN002 OVC006 13/13 A3044=
METAR KBDR 121552Z 00000KT 3SM BR BKN002 OVC006 13/13 A3044=

Over the course of a few minutes (from 1541Z to 1552Z) the visibility went from one mile to three and the sky condition from 200 overcast to 600 overcast. I promptly filed an IFR flight plan for a 1600Z departure KHFD to KBDR direct and went back out to N631S.

Brainard ground control gave me my clearance to KBDR via HFD thence direct, at 4,000 and I got underway for the 25 minute flight. By the time I was cleared to BAYYS for the RNAV Runway 24 approach, Bridgeport was reporting "better than 5,000 and 5." N631S and I touched down at 1625Z. Waiting out the fog had taken two and a half hours out of my day, but it was just another one of those things in aviation. Every now and then the old adage applies: "Time to spare? Go by air!"

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It's Been Over a Week...

The seasons are changing, the weather is dynamic, and recently the flying has been somewhat entertaining. The last trip N631S and I made from Connecticut down to the DC area was a good example.

It's certainly the time of year when I start paying close attention to temeratures aloft. That Friday was a sort of a drizzly, rainy day so I wanted to see forecasts above freezing for my intended route.

Fortunately, the freezing levels forecast for the eastern Pennsylvania routing (a morning forecast at left, with a valid time of 19Z) looked quite good. The area where my flight path would be at 8000 feet MSL would have the freezing level between 9000 and 11000. That was good news, as I could focus on other things.

I was expecting to depart KBDR between 20Z and 21Z, and the TAF was forecasting basic conditions of six miles visibility in mist with a broken ceiling between 2500 and 3500 feet, but with periods of light showers and four mile visibility, ceiling at 1500.

TAF AMD KBDR 191858Z 1919/2018 15010KT P6SM SCT008 SCT015 BKN035
       TEMPO 1919/1921 4SM -SHRA BR BKN015 
       FM192100 15008KT 6SM BR SCT008 SCT015 BKN025 
       FM192300 17007KT 4SM BR SCT008 BKN015 
       FM200300 VRB04KT 4SM BR OVC015
       TEMPO 2006/2010 2SM BR BKN008 
       FM201000 VRB04KT 2SM BR BKN008 
       FM201300 24008KT P6SM SCT015
       FM201500 24010KT P6SM SKC=

The winds were going to be against me, quite vigorously. I was anticipating about 2:35 enroute, with an arrival at KVKX a bit after 23Z. But the forecast for nearby KDCA was quite benign...calling for good visibility and scattered clouds at 15000 feet. Clearly, it seemed, I was headed for better weather.

 
TAF AMD KDCA 192038Z 1921/2018 VRB12G20KT 4SM SHRA BR BKN035 
       FM192200 21005KT P6SM SCT150 
       FM200900 27006KT P6SM SCT200=

So I got on with the program and departed KBDR at 2034Z in the midst of a light rain shower. N631S climbed into the overcast and soon broke out into the clear at about 6000 feet. So far so good! The balance of the flight promised to be lengthy but uneventful.

About an hour later, things started to get a bit more interesting. The forecasts hadn't said anything about convective activity; indeed the outlook had used words like "slight" to describe the risk of thunderstorms. But there, up ahead as I approached Lancaster, was a rather nasty looking line of storms headed northeast and most certainly becoming a factor. Who ordered that? Not that I was terribly surprised. The strong southerly flow and warm air aloft indicated considerable advection of warm moist air, moving north and colliding with the cold air approaching from the west. Some atmospheric fireworks were to be expected.

The thunderstorm activity was clearly visible up ahead in the light of the setting sun. I asked Harrisburg approach for an early turn toward Baltimore to put a bit more space between N631S and the weather, and they accommodated with "After Lancaster, cleared direct Baltimore". I expected I'd need further deviations to the east as the line of cells moved north, but that was good for the time being.

By the time Harrisburg handed me and N631S off to Potomac Approach I was not liking the proximity of the weather outside the right cabin window at all. Frequent cloud to ground lightning was appearing about five miles west of my track. So, from the first Potomac Approach controller I requested a 15 degree deviation left, which he promptly approved. That vector pointed me toward Martin State (KMTN) and moved me away from the storm cells just west of Baltimore.

The scheme running through my mind as I was handed off to the next controller was "present heading for about 15 miles, then direct Nottingham (OTT)". I never got a chance to propose that, because the controller said, "Cessna 31 Sierra, fly a heading of 180 for now. We'll do that for 20 miles or so and then you can go direct Nottingham and then to VKX. That should be comfortable." I responded, "31 Sierra, that sure works for me." Have I mentioned that I love Air Traffic Controllers?

Looking ahead, I could see that there were cells in the vicinity of Andrews AFB, just north of KVKX, my destination. It would, I figured, take me about another twenty minutes to get down to a point abeam OTT and I hoped that the active weather would clear to the north by then.

The south heading took me offshore over Chesapeake Bay (not, however, beyond gliding distance from the shoreline). The sun had set, it was getting quite dark, and the sound and light show off to the west was pretty spectacular. So much for the forecast of "slight" chances for convective weather!

Approaching OTT, I asked for the RNAV Runway 6 instrument approach into KVKX. It looked as though the active cells had moved away from the airfield, but I saw no reason to chance that cloud "debris" from the cells would hamper a visual approach. And, the extra 15 minutes or so that it would take to fly the approach would give the weather some extra time to move away. Sort of a useful delaying vector.

The approach was uneventful. The weather had moved off to the north and the final approach and landing offered no problems. I taxied N631S around to the hangar and put the airplane to bed.

Only after closing the hangar doors did I notice that in the half-hour since the wheels had touched the runway a serious layer of fog had settled over KVKX. If I'd been thirty minutes later, I doubt I could have landed there. Timing is, as usual, everything.

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Ask for What You Need! (cont'd)

Friday's flight from KBDR to KVKX took me back to a theme I focused on about a year ago: the importance of asking ATC for what you need to stay out of trouble. You have to have good situational awareness and an understanding of where you need to be. ATC will help you to get there.

As it got close to the time I'd planned for departure, the weather near Bridgeport was good. But things were happening in central Pennsylvania that needed watching. The Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF's) in effect for Allentown (KABE) and Lancaster (KLNS) contained some strong hints:

TAF KABE 171734Z 1718/1818 24005KT P6SM SCT050 BKN250
       FM171900 22011KT P6SM SCT050 BKN250
       TEMPO 1721/1724 5SM TSRA BKN035CB  
       FM180000 29005KT P6SM SCT050 BKN100
       TEMPO 1800/1803 5SM -SHRA OVC050 
       FM180400 33004KT P6SM SCT025 BKN050 
       FM180800 34005KT 5SM BR SCT020 OVC025 
       FM181400 01005KT P6SM BKN050 
       FM181600 02008KT P6SM BKN100=

TAF KLNS 171726Z 1718/1818 26008KT P6SM SCT200 
       FM172000 23007KT P6SM VCTS BKN040CB  
       FM180400 32005KT P6SM SCT040= 

From 21Z to 24Z, Allentown was forecasting periods of thundershower activity, while from 20Z through 04Z Lancaster was expecting thundershowers in the vicinity. The radar picture showed a fairly extensive area of precipitation and unsettled weather in central Pennsylvania, moving eastward fairly slowly.

N631S and I lifted off from Runway 24 at KBDR at 2013Z. The IFR clearance was the same one that is always issued by ATC's computer: Vectors to SAX, thence V249 to SBJ, V30 to ETX, V39 to LRP, V93 to BAL and thence direct to KVKX. I could have said "unable", and insisted on a routing over JFK and down the New Jersey coast, but that would have entailed a significant delay. I judged the forecast and weather situation to be manageable with ATC's usual enroute cooperation. Shortly after departure, the NEXRAD display on the Garmin 396 was showing (above) the beginnings of the adverse weather still well north and west of the planned route.

Once N631S and I got to Sparta (SAX) I asked for and promptly got a corner-cutting shortcut direct to LANNA; and after the handoff to Allentown approach I asked for and also promptly received clearance direct to FLOAT, which lies on V39 about halfway between East Texas (ETX) and Reading (KRDG). This track kept me south of the weather that was approaching Allentown from the north but I didn't want to go all the way to FLOAT (see above left). So about then, I had a brief chat with Allentown Approach:

N631S: Approach, Skylane 631 Sierra.
Approach: 31 Sierra, go ahead.
N631S: Could you please tell me what level of precip you're painting up ahead at FLOAT?
Approach: It looks like moderate precip at FLOAT...in fact, extensive moderate precip there and to the west.
N631S: 31 Sierra would like to request an early turn toward Lancaster to give that area of weather a wider berth.
Approach: 31 Sierra, I have your request. I'll need to work something out with Harrisburg.
N631S: That'd be great. Thanks.

At the time of this conversation, the view off to the north (at left) was gray and opaque, but I didn't see any lightning flashes. I pressed on toward FLOAT for about five miles and then the controller came back with "Cessna 631 Sierra, cleared direct Lancaster." I thanked her and turned N631S to the southwest.

Just a few miles farther on, the Allentown Approach controller completed the hand-off to Harrisburg Approach. I'd already been looking at the weather N631S and I were now heading toward at Lancaster (LRP) (depicted at left) and I checked in on the new frequency with a proposal for Harrisburg:

N631S: Harrisburg, Skylane N631 Sierra, level 8,000 with a request.
Approach: Skylane 631 Sierra, Harrisburg Approach. Harrisburg altimeter 29.78; go ahead with your request.
N631S: What are the chances of an early turn toward Baltimore for 31 Sierra, to stay clear of the weather along Victor 39 between Lancaster and Reading?
Approach: 31 Sierra, if I can get you down to 6,000 I can give you an early turn toward Baltimore. Can you accept 6,000?
N631S: 6,000 would be no problem for 31 Sierra.
Approach: Skylane 31 Sierra, descend and maintain 6,000. You can expect direct Baltimore in about one-zero miles.
N631S: Skylane 631 Sierra is out of 8 for 6, and thanks!

As soon as I leveled off at 6,000 feet, Harrisburg Approach advised, "Skylane 31 Sierra, steer heading 220." That got me pointed away from the weather (see left – note that the turn has already been made). And just a few miles farther along, "Skylane 631 Sierra, cleared direct Baltimore."

And with that, N631S and I were in the clear. The rest of the journey was uneventful and away from the influence of unpleasant weather. Again, the controllers all along the route – especially at Allentown Approach and Harrisburg Approach – have my appreciation for their skill and responsiveness.

---

And that's the story. Except...after passing Baltimore under the watchful care of Potomac Approach, N631S and I headed south to Nottingham (OTT) as we do nearly every Friday. I expected a vector after OTT to about a 240 heading and after a while a turn toward "home plate" at KVKX. But I got a pleasant surprise in the form of a clearance direct to the field from a point just north of OTT!

I must admit that I didn't recognize my benefactor's voice – people do sound differently on different frequencies – until I had KVKX in sight and cancelled IFR. That's when I heard, "Have a good evening, Frank..." and figured out that my final controller was my friend Sarah. So, if you read this, Sarah...thanks for the early turn toward home.

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Fortunate Timing

When N631S and I departed KVKX for our northbound trip to Connecticut on Monday the forecast for KBDR, the destination airport, was quite reasonable. It called for a light southwesterly breeze, good visibility and scattered high clouds. There was the possibility of periods of light rain but these were expected to be over by 8:00 AM.

KBDR 230949Z 2310/2406 23006KT P6SM SCT120 BKN250
       TEMPO 2310/2312 6SM -SHRA BKN035 
       FM231500 22009KT P6SM SCT050 BKN140
       TEMPO 2318/2322 6SM TSRA SCT025 BKN040CB 
       FM232200 22010KT P6SM VCSH BKN050 BKN120 
       FM240000 23005KT P6SM SCT050 BKN150= 

But things were a bit more complicated than that. There was also a Convective SIGMET in effect for thunderstorms with tops above 40,000 feet. They were at that time between Albany and Poughkeepsie, headed southeast. Toward Bridgeport.

I decided that since the weather on my intended route was good and the only question involved what the situation on arrival would be, it made sense to get underway and to work out options and alternates en route.

N631S was off the ground at 11Z. As soon as we were level at 7,000 feet, our final cruising altitude, I had a look at what the NEXRAD display would tell me. As you see at left, the first lot of stormy weather was passing KBDR. It was moving southeast at about 20 knots.

I panned the NEXRAD display on the GPS396 to the north and west and saw a second, larger area of weather coming along behind the first. It appeared that these storms would be influencing the area I was headed toward for some time to come. Without a doubt, it was time for some planning.

I took note that there was a clear area about ten miles wide between the areas of weather. With fortunate timing, the gap might accommodate my flight path from JFK to Bridgeport. I'd press on, and see if my luck was good.

Plan 'B' would be to land early and wait out the weather. There were a couple of places available for that. Miller Air Park in Toms River, NJ (KMJX) would work as would Belmar (KBLM). I'd watch the evolving weather picture and pick a spot to land if that seemed advisable.

Plan 'C' would be in effect if the situation kept looking good long enough to get me into the New York Class 'B' airspace and then quickly became unacceptable. Then I'd need to get New York Approach to help with weather avoidance vectors to an airport of refuge on Long Island or back in New Jersey.

With that thought process completed, I pressed on. With about 40 minutes to go, the first batch of weather had moved on and dissipated. It was no longer a factor. The second batch was moving toward the coast. The leading edge of the precipitation was about 20 miles from KBDR and the heavier returns were about 10 miles further out. I had already passed KMJX and decided to press on past KBLM. At this point I felt I had a good chance of reaching KBDR ahead of any significant weather.

Crossing JFK, and with 18 minutes to go, there was still about 10 miles between KBDR and even light rain. This was looking quite good. I felt that I had enough margin, even considering the well known NEXRAD latency issues and in case of need I could stay to the south and divert to either New Haven (KHVN) or Groton (KGON).

Conditions on the ground at KBDR were still good. New York Approach cleared me direct to KBDR and with less than 10 minutes left in the trip, I relaxed. I flew past the field, turned back to land on Runway 24 and taxied to parking. As I was putting the cover on N631S, light rain began.

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Sufficiently Interesting

My friend Craig from Oregon sort of wondered, in a recent comment, where N631S and I have been. He said: "FlightAware says N631S has been flying. Any details to share?"

I responded to the effect that "the flying has been pretty uneventful (i.e., not great blogfodder)" and in fact it's been six or seven weeks of pretty routine back and forth between Potomac Airfield (KVKX) and Bridgeport's Sikorsky Memorial (KBDR). However, this past Friday's southbound trip was interesting enough to talk about.

It was clear from the beginning that, at the least, we were going to get wet. The early chart from NCEP valid for 18Z showed a double-barreled surface low over southern Pennsylvania and Maryland with a stationary front trailing off to the east-southeast and widespread showers.

The Terminal Area Forecasts issued at 12Z looked pretty reasonable:

 
KBDR 201120Z 2012/2112 09013KT 6SM -SHRA SCT020 OVC050 
     FM201500 08014KT 4SM -RA BR OVC020 
     FM202300 07012KT 5SM -DZ SCT020 OVC025 
     FM210400 05010KT P6SM OVC035
          
KDCA 201125Z 2012/2112 33006KT P6SM BKN015 OVC060 
     FM201600 VRB05KT P6SM VCSH FEW030 BKN040 
     FM202000 31008KT P6SM VCTS BKN040CB 
     FM210300 03006KT 4SM BR VCSH SCT015 BKN030 
     FM210500 01013KT 4SM BR SCT009 BKN015

The forecast for a late-afternoon departure from KBDR was fine – four miles visibility in light rain and mist, moderate northeast wind and a 2,000 foot overcast. Nothing to be concerned about.

The arrival forecast for the Washington area (using KDCA) had something that would bear watching. From 4:00 PM local time, it anticipated thunder-showers in the vicinity and a broken ceiling of cumulonimbus clouds at 4,000 feet. Supporting that, the mid-morning Collaborative Convective Forecast (CCFP) map valid for 21Z showed widespread sparse convective activity, predicted with low confidence (the gray stuff) but with areas of higher confidence (the blue stuff) located where it might prove interesting to me.

I talked about that "VCTS" tag in the TAF back in May. It seems to follow from a forecast for scattered or sparse convective activity and is flyable with good on-board weather depiction and basic visual conditions. I'd have both, so the VCTS wasn't a "no go" item, but it did demand respect.

So, I was good to go but I continued to keep a watchful eye on the evolving forecast. And I was pleased to see the 18Z TAF's. Neither the forecast nor the view out of my office window had changed much regarding my departure, but things were looking up for arrival.

 
KDCA 201733Z 2018/2118 32007KT 6SM -RA BKN010 BKN035 OVC100 
     FM202000 36010KT P6SM BKN025 OVC150 
     FM210200 02012KT 5SM -SHRA VCTS BKN015 OVC040CB 
     FM210600 01008KT 4SM BR BKN007 
     FM211600 02007KT P6SM SCT007 BKN015

Basically, the forecast thunder-showers had been pushed out to later in the evening, well after my ETA. That was a nice piece of news. So, shortly thereafter, off to the airport!

N631S and I took off in light rain, but it was clear that the weather was breaking up quickly. After departing Runway 6 at KBDR and turning to the north, I was able to snap the picture at left showing what amounts to visual conditions over the Housatonic River. There were clouds and bursts of precipitation during the initial climb to 6,000 feet but it was the ragged edge of the weather. Just a few seconds later I captured the NEXRAD screen below.

This image makes it clear that there would not be much precipitation to deal with, at least for the first half of the trip. Of course, NEXRAD doesn't show clouds. Upon reaching the Hudson River, ATC asked for a climb to 8,000 feet. That put N631S into the clouds and there we stayed for most of the flight.

Having gotten the departure under control, it was time to look at how the weather was developing at the destination. I panned the NEXRAD display down to the south and got this:

Here too, the precipitation seemed to be departing to the east, and there was no sign of the convective activity that had been in the earlier forecast. Things were definitely looking good. The next step was to check recent METAR's for airports near KVKX to get an idea of current conditions. Early in the flight, here's what Washington National, Andrews, and Davison Army Airfield were reporting:

 
METAR KDCA 201952Z 35005KT 10SM -RA BKN017 BKN023 OVC040
           27/22 A2992 RMK AO2 SLP130 P0000 T02720217=

METAR KADW 201955Z AUTO 06007KT 7SM -RA BKN007 OVC015 24/23
           A2992 RMK AO2 RAB1941DZE1941 CIG 006V008 SLP131
           P0001 T02410232 $=

METAR KDAA 201955Z AUTO 29004KT 10SM -RA CLR 27/21 A2992
           RMK AO2 RAB1950 SLP132 P0000 T02690214=

The most interesting part of that was, of course, the marginal weather at Andrews AFB. Only about four miles from KVKX, Andrews is a better predictor of conditions at my home field than Washington National. Andrews had good visibility in light rain, but a broken ceiling at 700 feet. That's pretty low! It was time to break out the approach plate for the RNAV Rwy 6 instrument procedure at KVKX and hope that conditions would be improved on arrival.

The Minimum Descent Altitude (MDA) for the approach to Runway 6 at KVKX is 680 feet MSL – 562 feet above the touch-down zone elevation (TDZE). A 700 foot ceiling cuts things fairly thin. One piece of good news was that the METAR's indicated winds favoring Runway 6. I would not need to worry about circling to Runway 24. The MDA for a circling approach is 60 feet higher, which would cut the margin further.

Just to make things a bit more entertaining, I hadn't flown the RNAV approach into KVKX since March. I'm current, but all my recent approaches have been at Bridgeport.

The flight continued smoothly and uneventfully past Allentown and Lancaster, and down to Baltimore. Passing Baltimore I rechecked the conditions at Andrews. Not much had changed:

 
METAR KADW 202155Z AUTO 04006KT 10SM OVC007 23/22 A2992 RMK
           AO2 RAB2102E212136DZE2102B2136E2138 SLP131 P0004
           T02250217=

The rain had ended and visibility was a bit improved. The ceiling, still at 700 feet AGL, was now a solid overcast rather than broken. The recorded ATIS at Potomac Airfield (KVKX) was reporting winds five knots at 080. It doesn't report ceiling.

ATC asked my intentions and I said I'd like the RNAV 6 approach. "You can expect that," was the reply. I planned to shoot the approach, and if I had to miss, I'd go around and try one more time. A second miss and I'd divert to Manassas. I have a rule about never shooting an approach a third time.

Potomac Approach vectored N631S and me to the southwest and brought us down to 2,000 feet. Then we were cleared direct to WOBUB, the Initial Approach Fix (IAF), to begin the instrument approach. This picture, approaching WOBUB, looks off to the northeast toward KVKX, about 10 miles away.

The approach was routine and we broke out of the clouds at 800 feet, two to three miles from the threshold. It was nice to land and put N631S away, but if the cloud bases had been 200 feet lower the tale would have gotten longer and more interesting. I thought it was sufficiently interesting as it was.

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