Do I Dare Be Optimistic?

I mean, with respect to the weather for Friday evening. There has been a lot of AmTrak Weather of late. I last flew from KVKX up to KBDR on the morning of January 4th. It was severe clear and cold and the trip was amazingly uneventful. Since then, the better part of discretion has been to leave N631S parked and make the weekend commute by train.

I did get up for an hour on the evening of the 14th (with a friend acting as Safety Pilot) to get in a couple of approaches "under the hood" to maintain my IFR currency. We flew the ILS 36 at KOXC to a miss and hold, and then the RNAV 24 at KBDR. Again, an uneventful flight.

(As an aside, it has proven harder to maintain IFR currency in winter than it was in the summer. Summer weather can usually be worked around, and every few trips you wind up needing to fly an instrument approach at the end. In winter, the weather seems to be either amazingly good VFR (no approach) or not flyable (no approach). Hence the need to log approaches under simulated conditions.)

Well, here is the 60 hour forecast map for 00Z on Friday evening. It looks fairly promising although that trough extending into central Virginia bears watching.

The forecaster has the following to say about the period in the NWS Forecast Discussion:

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE EVENTUALLY MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SATURDAY. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FRIDAY AND THEN THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A CONFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY BUILD HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST SET UP OF MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER...THERE DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW TO OUR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE [AREA] WITH LESS OF A CHANCE TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE GRADIENT IS LIKELY TO SET UP RIGHT OVER OUR [AREA] BETWEEN NOTHING TO THE NORTH AND ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE SOUTH...THERE STILL IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AND THIS WILL WE WILL HAVE TO MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

The models are looking fairly promising. The NAM model is calling for high overcast ceilings and minimal probability of precipitation throughout the evening. The GFS is just a bit less favorable with the ceiling down to as low as 6,000 feet by 00Z (that's OK, as ATC usually runs me over KBWI at 6,000) and the precipitation probability up to 13% (still pretty low) for the six hour period from 18Z to 00Z. The models agree that it's going to be cold, with a light northwest wind at the surface.

All in all, I think I'm justified in harboring some optimism. Time will tell all.