Wednesday, October 13, 2010

'Winter Is Icumen In'

Winter is icumen in,
Lhude sing Goddamm,
Raineth drop and staineth slop,
And how the wind doth ramm!

--Ezra Pound (1915)

Looking ahead to Friday's weather has me in an unhappy mood. Here is a picture of the reason for my discontent, courtesy of NOAA's Aviationweather.gov:

This shows the forecast for the 850mb pressure level (i.e., about 5,000 feet MSL) on Friday evening at 00Z. It's based on the NAM model run at 18Z today. The precipitation data is for the period from 18Z to 00Z and the blue curve is the 0 degree C isotherm. (If you click on the image you'll get to see the uncropped version.)

With my usual departure time from Bridgeport's KBDR of around 21Z, it doesn't look like I'll be dealing with much precipitation. But I anticipate low to medium ceiling heights and a fairly low freezing level (reference that 0 deg. isotherm). It seems unlikely that the "usual routing", at 8,000 feet over to Sparta and Allentown, will work due to probable icing conditions. I might get away with a route over JFK and down the New Jersey coast at 6,000 feet. If I can get my friends at ATC to clear me that way.

If ATC is uncooperative, I might (as a last resort) be able to file to an intermediate destination in New Jersey (possibly KMJX, Miller Airpark in Toms River), land there, and refile to KVKX from that point. That would probably game the system but it's irritating to have to contemplate such subterfuge.

We shall await developments...


ReV said...

Ice may not be nice...but 45 knots on the nose makes the journey a long one (:>)


Frank Van Haste said...


Roger that!