Where's Earl? (for the Last Time)

At left, Earl's 1145Z portrait for this morning. Overnight, the storm was downgraded to Category 2 and shifted its track a bit to the east. That's all good news. The result is that the forecast for time of departure from KBDR is looking a bit less challenging than it did last evening.
Here's the 12Z TAF:

KBDR 031125Z 0312/0412 VRB03KT 6SM HZ SCT015 BKN150 
     FM031700 06012G17KT 5SM -SHRA BR BKN015 OVC150 
     FM032000 05020G30KT 5SM -SHRA BR SCT015 OVC035 
     FM040200 35020G30KT 5SM -SHRA BR SCT035 BKN150 
     FM040500 30012KT P6SM SCT150 
     FM040800 29005KT P6SM SCT150

For the time of interest (around 21Z) that's calling for 20 knot winds from 050 with gusts to 30 knots, and five mile visibility in mist and light rain showers. There should be scattered clouds at 1,500 feet and an overcast at 3,500 feet.

That's a fairly sporty wind forecast, but the direction is fortunate as it will be almost straight down Runway 6. Last evening's TAF had the same wind strength but a forecast direction of 010. That would have been a more challenging situation for takeoff as it would have offered a sizable crosswind component. So I'm happy with the change.

In the Terminal Area Forecast Discussion, the forecaster offers this:

STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED AT KGON/KISP...WITH NE WINDS INCREASING
TO 35 KT WITH 45 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FOR
KBDR...MAX WINDS TOP OUT AT 25 KT WITH 35 KT GUSTS.

FOR THE KNYC TERMINALS...THINK MAX WINDS TOP OUT AT 20 KT WITH 30
KT GUSTS...BUT THAT MAY END UP BEING TOO HIGH DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF EARL.

So at least one forecaster thinks conditions may be less severe than currently predicted. I could live with that.