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Monday, September 13, 2010

Fog to Start the Week

Fair is foul, and foul is fair:
Hover through the fog and filthy air.

-- Macbeth, Act 1, Scene i
That may be a bit harsh. But there seemed something of the heath in the fog at KVKX when I arrived this morning. The airport is nestled in a valley and the occasional dense fog is the price we pay for the protection afforded by the surrounding higher terrain.

That's N631S in the distance, at left, waiting in front of the hangar for the fog to lift enough to make an IFR departure sensible. The photo was taken at 0745 local time, about when I'd normally be departing. As it was, I had another half hour to wait.

After departure, most of the trip to Connecticut was on top in clear conditions. The cloud layer that we flew over was, however, widespread and quite low. Ceilings at many stations were under 1,000 feet.

The METAR for conditions at KBDR on arrival had this to say:


KBDR 131352Z 36004KT 5SM BR BKN006 OVC023 16/14 A3001 
RMK AO2 RAB12E43 SLP161 P0000 T01610144

Just a breath of a breeze from the north, five miles visibility in mist, and broken clouds at 600 feet, overcast above at 2,300. The ILS approach to Runway 6 was on offer.

In the event, N631S and I broke out of the cloud bases at about 450 feet, a mile and a half from the runway threshold. Below, the track for the trip from the nice folks at FlightAware.com.

Saturday, September 11, 2010

Cool!

The flight down to the DC area from Connecticut on Friday evening was quick and uneventful. Most of the trip was in visual conditions (VMC) on top of a widespread overcast layer that mostly topped out just below N631S's cruising altitude of 8,000 feet MSL.

The few seconds of video above show the cloud tops going by at about 140 knots true airspeed.
One other thing. The photo at left shows the outside air temperature in the cloud layer, at 8,000 feet over Reading, PA (KRDG).

Summer is over, my friends, and it's time to start paying close attention to where the freezing level is. Cold weather IFR is upon us.

Sunday, September 5, 2010

Earl Went Thataway!

After all of the Thinking of Great Thoughts about Hurricane Earl (discussed earlier at (1), (2), and (3)), it turned out to be pretty much of a non-event.

The METAR in effect at the time N631S and I departed KBDR on Friday afternoon looked like this:


KBDR 031930Z 05007KT 10SM SCT021 27/23 A2961 RMK AO2 RAE01 PRESFR P0000
The strong, gusty winds from the northeast had not yet materialized, visibility was unrestricted, there was no precipitation and the overcast was quite high.

The weather "snapshot" in the FlightAware track above reflects conditions when N631S and I were between Allentown and Lancaster. As you can see, the echoes from precipitation associated with Earl hadn't yet reached Bridgeport.

As I noted in the previous post (linked as #3, above), one New York-based forecaster remarked (in the TAF Discussion) that the winds then being forecast "may end up being too high depending on the strength and position of Earl." Full points to that forecaster - he got it right!


There was one item of interest, unrelated to Earl, on this flight. When I flipped the avionics master to "ON", the Garmin GPSmap 396 did not wake up in the usual manner. It was unable to link with any satellites and after a minute or so it gave up trying. If the weather had been as predicted (i.e., rather nasty) then this would have been quite distressing. Without the GPSmap 396 I was deprived of the XM Weather product. But conditions were not bad at all so I decided to shut it down and troubleshoot the problem en-route.

After departing and getting up to cruising altitude, I turned the 396 back on. It still could not find satellites and offered up a dialog box with several choices for me, such as "Start Simulation Mode", "Continue Acquiring", and "Auto-Locate Mode". The "fine print" under the last said "Choose this option if today is not Sep 2, 2010".

Well, it certainly was not Sept 2nd, so I chose that option and the unit began to laboriously scan the sky for satellites. And that, of course, is when the little light bulb went on for me. Dead battery.

The 396 normally operates on ship's power. But when everything is powered down it uses its internal Li-ion battery to remember the data it needs to reestablish a picture of the GPS satellite constellation. If the Li-ion battery pack dies, the unit forgets where (and when) it is.

After a number of minutes of heavy lifting in Auto-Locate mode the 396 was back to normal...and I need to order it a new battery pack (for about $40).


Incidentally, this is Post Number 200. May I express my great appreciation to all of you for stopping by to read and occasionally comment. I hope that you'll continue to find these posts enjoyable and, perhaps, useful.

Friday, September 3, 2010

Where's Earl? (for the Last Time)

At left, Earl's 1145Z portrait for this morning. Overnight, the storm was downgraded to Category 2 and shifted its track a bit to the east. That's all good news. The result is that the forecast for time of departure from KBDR is looking a bit less challenging than it did last evening.
Here's the 12Z TAF:

KBDR 031125Z 0312/0412 VRB03KT 6SM HZ SCT015 BKN150 
     FM031700 06012G17KT 5SM -SHRA BR BKN015 OVC150 
     FM032000 05020G30KT 5SM -SHRA BR SCT015 OVC035 
     FM040200 35020G30KT 5SM -SHRA BR SCT035 BKN150 
     FM040500 30012KT P6SM SCT150 
     FM040800 29005KT P6SM SCT150

For the time of interest (around 21Z) that's calling for 20 knot winds from 050 with gusts to 30 knots, and five mile visibility in mist and light rain showers. There should be scattered clouds at 1,500 feet and an overcast at 3,500 feet.

That's a fairly sporty wind forecast, but the direction is fortunate as it will be almost straight down Runway 6. Last evening's TAF had the same wind strength but a forecast direction of 010. That would have been a more challenging situation for takeoff as it would have offered a sizable crosswind component. So I'm happy with the change.

In the Terminal Area Forecast Discussion, the forecaster offers this:


STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED AT KGON/KISP...WITH NE WINDS INCREASING
TO 35 KT WITH 45 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FOR
KBDR...MAX WINDS TOP OUT AT 25 KT WITH 35 KT GUSTS.

FOR THE KNYC TERMINALS...THINK MAX WINDS TOP OUT AT 20 KT WITH 30
KT GUSTS...BUT THAT MAY END UP BEING TOO HIGH DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF EARL.

So at least one forecaster thinks conditions may be less severe than currently predicted. I could live with that.

Thursday, September 2, 2010

Where's Earl? (cont'd)

Earl is moving right along. Here is an 1145Z Thursday satellite image showing the storm off the Florida coast.

And, at left, an enlarged view of the track forecast from the National Hurricane Center. The two marked points on the track denote 02Z Friday and 02Z Saturday, and the green coastal outline denotes the Tropical Storm Warning area.

It's late enough in the week to start looking at some Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF's) to get an idea of what to expect for the flight south. Here are the pertinent forecasts for major terminals that provide a 30 hour forecast horizon:


KJFK 021123Z 0212/0318 23006KT P6SM FEW080 
     FM021600 20010KT P6SM FEW060 
     FM021900 19016KT P6SM FEW050 SCT250 
     FM030100 18008KT P6SM BKN250 
     FM031000 08008KT P6SM OVC150 
     FM031700 04015G22KT 5SM -SHRA BR OVC015
        
KPHL 021120Z 0212/0318 20006KT P6SM SKC 
     FM021600 20011KT P6SM FEW070 
     FM022300 17007KT P6SM SCT280 
     FM030500 08006KT P6SM OVC200 
     FM031200 04012KT P6SM OVC090
        
KBWI 021135Z 0212/0318 VRB03KT 6SM HZ SCT110 SCT250 
     FM021300 VRB04KT P6SM SCT250 
     FM021600 18006KT P6SM SCT250 
     FM022200 16008KT P6SM BKN250 
     FM030300 VRB05KT P6SM SCT200 BKN250 
     FM030800 03005KT P6SM SCT080 BKN200 BKN250 
     FM031400 36009KT P6SM SCT120 BKN200
        
KIAD 021135Z 0212/0318 VRB03KT P6SM FEW120 
     FM021600 17006KT P6SM FEW250 
     FM022200 15004KT P6SM SCT250 
     FM030200 VRB03KT P6SM SCT250 
     FM030800 35003KT P6SM FEW080 BKN200 BKN250 
     FM031400 32006KT P6SM SCT250

Starting at 17Z Friday afternoon KJFK is anticipating wind from 040 at 15 knots with gusts to 22 knots, five miles visibility in mist under a 1,500 foot overcast and light rain showers.

The real point of interest is four hours later and 50 miles northeast - KBDR at 21Z, when I expect to be departing. But given Earl's expected track and weakening trend, weather on departure should not be much more severe, and that would be good enough.

And, N631S and I will be headed in the right direction. The TAF's for KPHL, KBWI and KIAD suggest that by mid-afternoon Friday conditions will be quite benign.

So far, so good.

Wednesday, September 1, 2010

Where's Earl?

Well, here, actually:

The more pertinent question is, "Where will Earl be from 21Z to 23Z Friday, and how will that effect me and N631S on our trip from Connecticut to DC?" We need a forecast or two, and the NWS is happy to oblige.

The latest track projection from the Hurricane Center has the storm offshore Cape Hatteras at 12Z Friday morning. Interpolating between the Friday and Saturday morning locations, one can infer that Earl will be at or near the 40N 70W "benchmark" at 00Z Saturday. If the track forecast verifies, we can hope that most of the mess will be well to the east and the afternoon and evening will be flyable.

Here's a graphic depicting the probability of winds of tropical storm strength (i.e., 39 mph) through 00Z Saturday. The probability for the DC area is about 10%; that for Bridgeport, CT is about 30%.

One more chart. This is the forecast from NCEP for 12Z Friday showing Earl churning up the Atlantic off Hatteras. Look at how tightly the isobars around the eye of the storm are spaced. This implies that the storm effects will drop off quickly with distance. Plan to give Earl a decently wide berth and he may not be too bad.

Let's take a look at what the models are actually saying for departure (KBDR) and destination (KVKX).


BRIDGEPORT      
 KBDR   GFS MOS GUIDANCE    9/01/2010  0600 UTC                      
 DT /SEPT  1      /SEPT  2                /SEPT  3             /     
 HR   12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 00 06 
 TMP  77 83 88 89 83 77 73 71 74 80 84 86 81 75 72 71 72 75 78 73 69 
 DPT  64 64 63 63 65 66 65 64 64 64 62 64 66 68 68 68 68 69 69 67 62 
 CLD  CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL FW FW OV OV OV OV SC 
 WDR  34 22 22 22 23 24 26 27 29 22 22 21 22 23 21 18 10 11 09 03 31 
 WSP  02 06 07 08 06 05 03 03 04 07 09 10 07 05 04 04 05 08 10 12 08 
 P06         1     0     3     4     1     4     7    20    37 53 52 
 Q06         0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     1  4  2 
 T06      0/ 2  0/ 5  0/ 0  0/ 1  0/ 5  0/12  0/ 4  0/ 1  8/ 5  9/ 6 
 CIG   8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  7  5  4  4  8 
 VIS   7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  5  5  5  5  5  7 
 OBV   N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N BR BR HZ BR BR  N
 

For Bridgeport (KBDR), for the six hours leading up to 00Z Saturday the GFS model predicts wind from 030 at 12 knots, 53% probability of precipitation with 1/4" to 1/2" of rain, ceiling between 1000 and 1900 feet, and 3 to 5 miles visibility. Not pretty, but flyable.


ANDREWS AFB         
 KADW   GFS MOS GUIDANCE    9/01/2010  1200 UTC                      
 DT /SEPT  1/SEPT  2                /SEPT  3                /SEPT  4 
 HR   18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 
 TMP  92 92 82 74 70 67 72 86 89 88 79 71 69 68 71 81 89 91 82 69 67 
 DPT  63 59 62 61 61 61 63 62 59 60 65 66 65 65 66 65 61 58 59 60 55 
 CLD  FW FW CL CL CL CL CL CL FW SC SC FW BK BK BK SC FW FW BK SC SC 
 WDR  24 21 17 18 20 20 22 18 16 15 14 14 08 03 35 34 32 28 25 29 29 
 WSP  06 07 06 05 05 03 03 05 08 08 05 04 04 05 08 12 14 12 09 07 09 
 P06         0     6     6     1     2    16    31    15     8 10  2 
 Q06         0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0  0  0 
 T06      0/ 4  0/ 1  0/ 0  0/ 1  1/ 5 10/ 1  5/ 0  2/ 3  5/19  4/ 3 
 CIG   8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8 
 VIS   7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  6  7  7  7  7  7  7  7 
 OBV   N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N BR HZ  N  N  N  N  N  N 

For the same period at Andrews AFB (just down the road from KVKX) the model predicts wind from 250 at 9 knots, 8% probability of precipitation, ceiling greater than 12,000 feet, and more than 6 miles visibility. In short, benign conditions.

For comparison let's look at the NAM model output:


BRIDGEPORT     
 KBDR   NAM MOS GUIDANCE    9/01/2010  1200 UTC                      
 DT /SEPT  1/SEPT  2                /SEPT  3                /SEPT  4 
 HR   18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 
 TMP  90 91 85 79 75 72 76 83 88 89 83 77 74 73 72 75 78 78 76 70 70 
 DPT  62 61 63 65 64 63 64 64 64 63 64 65 66 67 67 69 70 70 69 62 57 
 CLD  FW FW CL FW CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL FW SC BK OV OV OV OV SC 
 WDR  23 22 23 24 26 26 26 22 22 21 22 22 22 17 15 12 13 10 01 30 31 
 WSP  07 08 06 05 04 03 04 08 10 12 08 07 05 05 04 07 09 04 04 05 07 
 P06         2     2     4     3     2     6     5    23    24 20  7 
 Q06         0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0  0  0 
 T06      0/ 3  0/ 0  0/ 0  2/ 9  0/14  0/ 1  0/ 1  3/ 1 17/ 9  5/ 2 
 CIG   8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  4  4  6  6  8 
 VIS   7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  6  6  6  7 
 OBV   N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N HZ BR  N  N 

For the period of interest at Bridgeport (KBDR), the NAM model predicts wind from 010 at 4 knots, 24% probability of precipitation, ceiling between 3000 and 6500 feet, and 6 miles visibility. Not bad at all; in fact lots better than the GFS forecast.


ANDREWS AFB         
 KADW   NAM MOS GUIDANCE    9/01/2010  1200 UTC                      
 DT /SEPT  1/SEPT  2                /SEPT  3                /SEPT  4 
 HR   18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 
 TMP  91 92 84 77 73 71 74 84 89 89 80 72 69 67 71 79 83 85 78 69 68 
 DPT  62 60 63 63 62 62 63 62 58 59 63 64 64 64 66 65 62 61 64 60 55 
 CLD  CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL FW FW CL CL CL CL CL CL FW SC BK BK SC 
 WDR  22 20 19 19 21 21 22 21 21 19 18 18 18 36 33 33 32 26 29 30 30 
 WSP  06 08 05 07 07 04 05 06 09 08 05 04 02 02 04 06 06 08 04 11 13 
 P06         2     2     4     3     2     4     5    14     1 11  0 
 Q06         0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0  0  0 
 CIG   8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8 
 VIS   7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7 
 OBV   N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N 

Finally, the NAM output for Andrews AFB calls for 00Z Saturday calls for wind from 290 at 4 knots, a 1% probability of precipitation, ceiling above 12,000 feet and better than 6 miles visibility.

So to sum up, Earl is a tightly wound, fast moving hurricane that the models predict will stay pretty far offshore. The current state of the forecast leads me to think that a departure from Bridgeport around 21Z Friday may be unpleasant but not dangerous, that in any event N631S and I will be out of most of the weather effects by the time our normal routing takes us to eastern Pennsylvania, and the arrival at KVKX ought to be routine.

Hurricanes are, of course, notoriously fickle beasts and Earl will bear continuous watching...but for now it looks like AMTRAK will have to go without me this weekend.

Thursday, August 26, 2010

On the Art of Crashing

"If you're faced with a forced landing, fly the thing as far into the crash as possible."
-- R.A. "Bob" Hoover

As recently discussed in this post, my friend Steve Cavallo had occasion in late June to deposit his Cessna 210D behind the boardwalk in Robert Moses State Park on Long Island after a total engine failure. Here is a news photograph of the result:

N3973Y - Photo (c) and courtesy of Fred Miller

To me, that picture speaks volumes about airmanship of the highest order. The airplane is resting in a confined space, at the very end of the available run, gear wisely left up and with a minimum of bent metal. In one of the press reports of the incident, the helicopter-borne reporter takes breathless note of how close the airplane came to the boardwalk and parking lot. This amused me as I was thinking, "Ol' Steve put that bird just exactly where he wanted it."

The quote below is from Steve's contribution to NASA's Oral History Project:

"[NACA Langley] also had [circa 1943] a rocket testing facility at Wallops Island, Virginia that required transportation service. To get to Wallops, we needed to fly a Grumman Goose Amphibian into a creek. The creek was a body of water about 50 meters wide and 2500 meters long which ran parallel to the ocean and was about 150 meters from it. The sand strip between was where the testing facility was located.

I was checked out to fly into the creek and it became pretty much my specialty. I got very proficient at landing and taking off into that small area, in all kinds of wind and current conditions."

The whole interview makes for compelling reading. But for now, I think it's fascinating to note that while Steve was slipping that Grumman amphib into confined waters over 65 years ago, and putting it just exactly where he wanted it, he was building up the experience and airmanship that allowed him to survive a close call and walk away just two months ago.

Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Autopilot Antics (cont'd)

Here's the culprit! In a post on Monday I described how N631S's S-TEC System 50 autopilot failed en route from DC, giving me the opportunity of scrape the rust off of my technique for hand-flying an ILS approach in IMC.

Yesterday, Dave the Avionics Wizard at Three Wing Flying Service, had the chance to investigate the problem.

Dave discovered that if he perturbed the wires at the pictured connector it would cause the autopilot to go off line. Everything else checked out fine, so he removed the connector and hard-wired the installation. No more connector to act as a potential point of failure. The system is now operating "ops normal."

I've developed a great deal of respect over the years for Dave's capabilities and his approach to his profession. One of his pet peeves is the use of connectors whose only purpose is to make the installation technician's job easier. For the sake of saving ten minutes under the panel, you accept a small degradation in system reliability. The possible consequence...is what happened to me on Monday.

Once again, the service from Three Wing has been exceptional. These guys are very good at what they do. N631S and I are 'good to go' for the trip south on Friday...and the weather is looking promising.

Tuesday, August 24, 2010

On the Ethics of Crashing

Just yesterday, it came to my attention that my friend Steve Cavallo had an engine failure and a forced landing late in June. He had departed Easton, MD (KESN) and was headed toward Gabreski Field (KFOK) in Westhampton, NY when the engine in his Cessna 210D quit over the waters off the south shore of Long Island.

Steve nursed the crippled Centurion to the shoreline and, in a remarkable display of airmanship, bellied it into a sandy lot behind the boardwalk at Robert Moses State Park. He was a little banged up but basically fine and no one on the ground had so much as a scratch.

Press articles describing the event can be found here, and here, and here. (The first story linked is the best.)

Steve Cavallo in a P-51 Mustang
I've written about Steve before. He is, in my view, a giant of aviation still flying with us. He flew as a test pilot for NACA during World War II and made incredibly valuable contributions to the war effort and to aviation progress. But today, I want to emphasize one quote from Steve, taken from one of the news accounts. He said this to a reporter:
“The main thing I was trying to do was not hurt anybody,” he said. “I would have opted to land on the beach—that would have been a cinch—but the beaches were full. The only thing that was open was this strip. If I didn’t go there, I think I would have been in a lot of trouble.”

That, I submit, is in the first place unsurprising given the experience and character of the man, and, in the second place, a humbling and vital lesson for the rest of us. As that silent powerless Cessna approached zero feet AGL Steve Cavallo was not preoccupied with his own safety and survival. He was determined to get the thing down without hurting people on the ground. Those folks never signed up to be Cessna-catchers!

I hope if any of us find ourselves in a similar situation we can work through the event with Steve's words in the back of our mind.

And...Steve, if you read this: Thanks for the lesson, you Great and Ancient Pelican. I'm happy that you're safe.

Monday, August 23, 2010

Autopilot Antics

As anticipated in last evening's post, the northern end of this morning's flight from the DC area to Bridgeport included some weather.

There wasn't a whole lot of precipitation (see image, left) but the New York area was pretty well clouded over, with layers from 1,500 feet to about 6,000. The METAR at KBDR at about the time of the screen shot was:

KBDR 231252Z 06012KT 10SM OVC014 21/18 A2988...
ten miles visibility, wind from the northeast at 12 knots, and an overcast ceiling at 1,400 feet. Not too bad.

That was about when the autopilot decided to stop cooperating.

N631S is equipped with an STEC System 50 autopilot with GPSS (GPS Steering) capability. These units have been extremely reliable as long as N631S has been with us. But not today. This morning, very shortly after I snapped that picture, the autopilot simply turned itself off.

It seemed perfectly content to have itself turned back on again, but it was clearly not to be relied upon. So I planned to hand-fly the ILS 6 approach.

The STEC 50 shut down twice more over Long Island, so as I started across Long Island Sound I shut the thing off and went back to basics. I have to confess that it was a slightly humbling experience, as I'd let myself get a bit rusty in the art of hand-flying ILS approaches in actual IMC. I was quite happy that the ceiling was relatively high. In the end the approach was a bit ragged but acceptable. Below, courtesy of the nice folks at FlightAware.com, is an indelible record of my choppy effort to get established on the localizer.

Dave the Avionics Wizard will be troubleshooting the autopilot tomorrow.

Sunday, August 22, 2010

The Pattern Continues

The pattern of which I took note in the previous post continues - uneventful Friday evenings and rather more interesting Monday mornings. Friday was utterly uneventful; as for tomorrow, well here's the 12Z forecast map:

The terminal area forecast (TAF) for Bridgeport (KBDR) for the expected time of arrival - about 1345Z tomorrow morning - looks like this:

KBDR 222218Z 2222/2318 13012G20KT 6SM -RA SCT015 OVC035
TEMPO 2222/2224 4SM RA BR BKN015 OVC030
FM230400 09012KT 3SM RA BR OVC010
FM230800 07012KT 5SM -RA BR OVC010
FM231100 07014KT 6SM -SHRA BR OVC015
FM231400 07015G22KT 6SM -SHRA BR BKN015 OVC020

Six statute miles visibility in light rain showers under a 1500 foot overcast, trending to 2000. Wind of 15 knots or so from the northeast, becoming gusty but closely aligned with Runway 6. I suspect that the ILS 6 approach will be on offer.

Thursday, August 19, 2010

Fair Weather Trends

For some time it has seemed to me that the weather that N631S and I have been dealing with during this summer season has consistently been less...um...entertaining than what we dealt with last year. (It appears that another uneventful Friday trip is in the offing for tomorrow evening.)

To calibrate the feeling, I did some digging in the logbook last night. For Friday trips to the DC area since the beginning of May, here's what I found:

BDR - VKX 2009 2010
Trips Hours Apchs Trips Hours Apchs
May 5 13.7 2 4 10.7 0
June 4 10.7 3 4 9.9 0
July 4 10.3 2 4 9.7 0
Aug* 3 7.3 0 2 4.8 0
Total 16 42.0 6 14 35.1 0
*August data through the 18th of the month.

Last year over the course of 16 weekends it took an average of 2.63 hours to fly from KBDR to KVKX. Five of those trips ended in instrument approaches (one trip ended in two - a miss and an approach at my alternate).

This year over the same period (two fewer flights) the trip has averaged 2.51 hours and I haven't needed to fly a single instrument approach. It appears that the Friday evening weather really has been quite a lot better this year.

So, what about the Monday morning trips from DC back to Connecticut? Here's the data:

VKX - BDR 2009 2010
Trips Hours Apchs Trips Hours Apchs
May 4 8.7 1 4 8.6 2
June 5 10.6 1 5 10.2 2
July 4 9.1 2 3 6.5 1
Aug* 2 4.3 0 3 6.2 1
Total 15 32.7 4 15 31.5 6
*August data through the 18th of the month.

In 2009 the northbound flight averaged 2.16 hours and 4 out of 15 flights ended in an instrument approach. This year I've averaged 2.10 hours with 6 out of 15 flights requiring me to dig out the approach plate.

It appears that my Monday morning experiences this year have been much the same as last year but the Friday night flights have been significantly better.

I hope that the weather genie doesn't now feel compelled to prove me wrong!

Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Book Review: "Slide Rule" by Nevil Shute

Nevil Shute is, of course, best known as the author of such highly regarded mid-20th Century novels as On the Beach, No Highway and A Town Like Alice. But that literary figure is not the central character of this autobiography. This is the story of an engineer and the story of an air-man.

The author was born Nevil Shute Norway, second son of a British postal official. (He dropped his surname from the attribution of his novels, lest his engineering colleagues think of him as "not a serious person.") He was smitten by the "aeroplane" at a very early age and determined to make aviation his life's work.

"Kenneth Grahame once wrote that 'there is nothing – absolutely nothing – half so much worth doing as simply messing about in boats.' With that I would agree, yet for a fleeting period in the world's history I think that aeroplanes ran boats very close for shear enjoyment. ... I count myself lucky that that fleeting period coincided with my youth and my young manhood, and that I had a part in it."

In that time (the book occupies the era between the World Wars) a life in aviation required daring, and it becomes clear that Nevil Shute Norway was possessed of daring sufficient to the need. At various times in his life he pursued aviation, the sailing of small boats off-soundings, and motor racing. But his daring was tempered with technical acumen and combined with an entrepreneurial spirit.

"...it is very good for the character to engage in sports which put your life in danger from time to time. It breeds a saneness in dealing with day-to-day trivialities which probably cannot be got in any other way, and a habit of quick decisions."

He took an engineering degree from Oxford in 1922 and went to work as a stress analyst for the De Havilland organization. Sir Geoffrey de Havilland, already famous as a designer of aircraft, was only the first of several aviation notables to cross paths with the author, and he provides measured portraits of each in turn.

In 1924 he moved on to Vickers, to work on the design and construction of the airship R-100 under the leadership of Barnes Wallis. Wallis, the prototypical English "boffin", was the guiding genius behind the innovative structure of the airship. When the design was complete Wallis went on to other projects (among them the wondrously rugged geodesic structure of the Vickers Wellington bomber's fuselage, and the "bouncing bomb" of Dambusters-fame). Nevil Shute Norway then became head of structural engineering for the project.

The R-100 was built as a competitive prototype in parallel with an Air Ministry design, the R-101. The author describes in detail his view of the relationship between the two programs and (somewhat uncharitably) of the shortcomings of R-101's design and its designers. In the end, the R-101 was famously disastrous, crashing on 5th October 1930 with great loss of life, on its first long-distance proving flight. The loss of R-101 effectively wrote finis to airship development in Britain.
"Aircraft do not crash of themselves. They come to grief because men are foolish, or vain, or lazy, or irresolute or reckless. One crash in a thousand may be unavoidable because God wills it so - not more than that."

The R-100, despite its apparently successful design, was grounded after the accident and subsequently broken up, the scrap being sold for a few hundred pounds. Nevil Shute Norway and his colleagues became, as they say, "redundant".

With this newfound freedom, the author's entrepreneurial side came to the fore. In 1931 he joined forces with the designer Hessell Tiltman to found a new aircraft manufacturing company, Airspeed Ltd. Given the economic conditions of the day, this was adventure of a high order, and the last 40% of the book is the tale of this adventure.

While Nevil Shute Norway was a highly competent engineer, Hessell Tiltman was a remarkably talented designer. So as the nascent company went forward the division of labor was that Tiltman designed the airplanes and Norway did about everything else – hiring staff, finding investors, dealing with suppliers, locating quarters, etc. etc. ad infinitum.

The firm struggled at the edge of disaster until they produced the Courier, a single engined "airliner" that outperformed all competition by virtue of its retractable undercarriage (not a first for Britain, but unique in that era). In fact, the author says that their design was reviewed by the designer of either the Spitfire or the Hurricane (Reg Mitchell and Sydney Camm, respectively - and he coyly refuses to say which) who advised that they omit the retractable gear. Some fast talking was needed to get the investors to ignore this advice, which would have left them as a no-name company with a me-too product. Right there, Nevil Shute Norway saved the company.

The Courier was enough of a success to lead to development of a twin-engined variant, the Envoy.

The Envoy was "militarized" to produce the Airspeed Oxford (at left), a multi-engine trainer that produced most of the bomber and transport crews who fought for the British Commonwealth in World War II. It was ordered and built in the thousands.

And there, perhaps, is the reason for Nevil Shute Norway's departure from the firm he had founded and nurtured. It had all become too big and too routine. He was jaded; as he put it, he was a "starter", not a "runner." In addition, he had begun to achieve some fairly notable success as a novelist. His books of fiction, written "on the back of the clock," were selling well and the motion picture studios were taking an interest. So in early 1938 he resigned as Managing Director of Airspeed, Ltd. His company would go on to considerable success without him and he would have his own success along a new pathway.

"An uneventful journey is a good journey for the technician."

Here, this autobiography ends. It does not describe the author's service as a Royal Naval Reserve officer in World War II, nor his emigration to Australia, nor his subsequent successful literary career. The original subtitle of this volume (1954 edition) was "The Autobiography of an Engineer", and as the book closes, that chapter of his life was ended.

Nevil Shute Norway died in January 1960 at the age of 60. He's left us with a remarkable memoir of a golden time in aviation history.

Wednesday, August 4, 2010

Somewhere, Mr. Sikorsky is Smiling

Back in January, in this post, I described an interesting visit to the Sikorsky Aircraft plant in Stratford, CT - including a discussion of the X-2 Technology demonstrator.

This experimental aircraft, equipped with coaxial rotors, a pusher prop and fly-by-wire controls, is designed to achieve 250 knots. As with most technology demonstrators, it's cobbled together with bits from old programs but it seems to be performing to expectations.

Last week (as recounted here) the aircraft surpassed the standing record speed for helicopters by achieving 225 knots in level flight. The new record is, for the time being unofficial, as all of the FAI protocols were not applied.

I suspect that Sikorsky will do a formal record run once the speed envelope is opened up to 250 knots.

So somewhere, Mr. Sikorsky is smiling. And, meanwhile, could someone explain to me again the rationale for the V-22 Osprey?

Tuesday, August 3, 2010

IFR Advantage

One advantage of having an instrument rating is that you get to fly on days when you can enjoy a closer relationship with the layers. This is over eastern Maryland at 7,000 feet MSL, about a half hour out yesterday morning: