Happy New Year (with a look back)

This is the third year that I've used this post title on 31 December. A year ago, I looked back on 2010 in this post, and a year earlier I reviewed 2009 in this one.

N631S finished the year with 4,207.3 hours on the tach, having flown 175.8 hours in 2011. That's really very close to the 2010 total of 177.9 hours. I made the round trip from KVKX in Maryland to KBDR in Connecticut and back 34 times this year, three and a half fewer than last year. That's in addition to a trip from the DC area down to the Carolina Outer Banks, thence inland to Nashville and back to home plate.

I logged 10.0 hours in actual IMC (instrument meteorological conditions) this year, compared with 2010's 12.9 hours. The weather has been good! The down-side of this is that this year's total of 10 instrument approaches flown in actual conditions is down from last year by four. Time logged as night this year was 10.2 hours, not materially different from last year's 9.2.

Since N631S came to us in 2004, it has been a remarkably reliable machine. But age may be catching up with it a bit, for this year has been – shall we say – maintenance intensive:

• In February, the alternator was replaced.
  
• During the Annual Inspection in April, the voltage regulator was replaced.
  
• Also at Annual, the 121.5 MHz ELT was replaced.
  
• In May, replaced the pilot's Push-to-Talk switch.
  
• In July, replaced the left fuel bladder.
  
• In November, replaced the switch, circuit beaker, flasher and lamp for the rotating beacon.
  
• In December, a new battery, and tagged "Inop" the activation switch for the GPSS module.
  

And the last item in the above list calls for a mea culpa from me regarding the recent absence of posts here. The December weather has been remarkably cooperative, allowing flight from KBDR to KVKX on the Friday before Christmas (with due attention paid to potential icing), then a return to KBDR after the holiday weekend, and finally, back to the DC area this Friday past to end the year. Each of these trips was completed uneventfully. Let me just offer this video clip, collected over central New Jersey whilst headed south at 6,000 feet on the 23rd, just above the solid, cold and icy undercast. As always, ATC was concerned and helpful:

And finally, may I wish all who may visit here a healthy, prosperous and safe 2012.

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Life's Little Annoyances

It's been one of those weeks.

On Monday morning, I got to Potomac Airfield (KVKX) early – before 6:00 AM local time. The temperature was 28ºF, so I immediately plugged in the Tanis pre-heat system and the quartz heater for the cabin. An hour of that and I'd be on my way.

A few minutes before 0700 I collected my clearance then disconnected the heaters and pulled N631S out of the hangar. And after a bit more housekeeping, got on with the starting program. And achieved no success at all. The voltage readout said 10.4v and the propeller said, "I don't think so."

I called Potomac Approach's Mt. Vernon Sector to let them know I would not be popping up on their scope when expected, and then I called Dan Fragassi at Clinton Aero Maintenance and asked if he would kindly drive over from Hyde Field with a spare battery and a Cessna jumper cable to get me started. Dan said, "Be right there," and thirty minutes later, there he was. Another five minutes and N631S was started and underway.

The good news of the morning was that there was a spanking tailwind yielding ground speeds of about 160 knots as I headed north. Soon N631S and I were over New Jersey and talking to Atlantic City Approach. Soon after checking on with A.C. Approach I heard, "Cessna 631 Sierra, turn 20º left, this will be a vector to Coyle." Cool! A shortcut! I clicked off the S-TEC GPSS module that was allowing the Garmin 530W to control the S-TEC System 50 autopilot – leaving the autopilot in Heading mode – and rolled the heading bug to the left.

Soon, the controller issued "direct Coyle" and I made the necessary key-presses on the 530W and clicked the switch to turn on the GPSS function. And for the second time that morning, the machine said, "I don't think so." No joy – the switch was ineffective.

I completed the trip using manual control of the autopilot in heading mode, and hoping that this wasn't a case of things coming in threes. Two failures in one day were sufficient. On arrival at Sikorsky Memorial (KBDR), after N631S was covered and tied down, I asked Three Wing maintenance to have a look at the battery and at the GPSS switch.

When I checked back with them early on Wednesday morning the news was not wonderful. '31S's battery was not happy. The battery is a Gill G-35 flooded electrode unit (see left) a bit more than two years old. I was told that it seemed to charge satisfactorily but that the electrolyte was discolored and they were concerned about the condition of the electrodes. I fly enough at night in the winter that I don't want to take chances with the condition of the battery so I asked them to install a new one. Hey, it's only money.

The situation with the GPSS switch was more interesting. Dave, the avionics tech, had verified that the switch had failed but they were having difficulty sourcing a new one. I asked for the part number and then queried the collective intelligence of the Cessna Pilots Association on-line forum about finding a switch.

I quickly learned that a new switch (the widget on top in the picture at left) would be available directly from S-TEC for a mere (gasp!) $957.00. That's a little extreme, so I've decided that I'll placard the GPSS as "inop" for a while and see how I like getting along without it.

Subsequently, I've been informed that S-TEC can repair the switches for about $350 (if it isn't completely fried) and I suspect that I'll probably take advantage of that while N631S is down for its annual inspection next spring.

And meanwhile, the weather for this week's trip south looks a bit iffy. As I type this, it's Thursday evening and the Terminal Area Forecast for KBDR looks like this:

 
KBDR 222330Z 2300/2324 VRB04KT P6SM FEW030 SCT050 BKN150 
     FM230300 08006KT P6SM SCT025 BKN040 OVC080 
     FM230600 06008KT 6SM -SHRA BR FEW007 BKN020 OVC040 
     FM230800 03010KT 3SM RA BR OVC006 
     TEMPO 2308/2311 1SM RA BR OVC004 
     FM231100 01011KT 5SM -RA BR BKN015 BKN030 
     FM231500 35010KT P6SM SCT025 BKN040 
     FM231900 34009KT P6SM FEW025 SCT040

According to this, for tomorrow afternoon I should expect good visibility, a few clouds at 2,500 feet and a scattered layer at 4,000 feet. Conditions to the south are forecast to be a bit better. That's flyable, even with cold temperatures aloft, but the forecast is dependent on some fairly nasty overnight weather clearing out to the east on schedule. Time will tell, and as "Plan B" I have an AMTRAK reservation in my pocket.

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More About the Fog

Yesterday's post describes an encounter on Monday with dense fog at Bridgeport (KBDR) and the resulting diversion to Waterbury-Oxford (KOXC). It includes the observation that neither the arrival of the fog, nor its persistence, were effectively incorporated in the Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF's) issued for KBDR.

Today I had an exchange on Google+ on the subject with Scott Dennstaedt. Scott is a former National Weather Service (NWS) research meteorologist and the guiding genius behind AvWxWorkshops.com, an excellent source of weather wisdom. He suggested that a comparatively obscure NWS product, the Area Forecast Discussion (AFD), might have helped me to "crack the code" when I was trying to sort out the effects of the fog using the TAF's.

The AFD's are produced by each Forecast Office (Bridgeport is covered by the office at Upton, NY on Long Island) and each AFD includes an Aviation section. The current AFD for the Upton office (OKX) can be seen HERE. Scott was kind enough to send me the Aviation portions of the AFD's that covered the time of interest on Monday.

As I noted yesterday, at 5:00 AM local time Monday KBDR was already fogged in. The TAF extant at that time was predicting that the fog would clear by 9:00 AM (14Z) while the AFD fretted about fog "over much of the area":

 
350 AM EST MON DEC 5 2011
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING WILL BE FOG/LOW STRATUS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. NYC TERMINALS GENERALLY RANGE FROM IFR TO VFR...
WITH EWR VSBYS AS LOW AS VLIFR. OUTSIDE OF THE NYC
TERMINALS...CONDITIONS VARY WITH VSBYS AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE TO
OVER 3 MILES. WITH FOG CONDITIONS CHANGING...
IT IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST JUST HOW MUCH CONDITIONS IMPROVE
TO WORSEN HOUR TO HOUR...THEREFORE AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY
AND SHOULD BE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z.

The forecaster pointed out that the behavior of the fog was difficult to forecast, which I knew well from experience. Still, the TAF came down on the side of the fog being gone by 14Z.

14Z came and went, with no sign of the fog dissipating. An amended TAF valid at 14Z extended the period where fog was considered likely to 15Z, projecting significant improvement thereafter. The Discussion in support of that TAF was still optimistic about improving conditions, but a new AFD issued just before 15Z – shortly after N631S and I had taken off and flown north – incorporated new pessimism:

 
956 AM EST MON DEC 5 2011
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK SLOWLY THRU
THE AREA TNGT. RIBBON OF IFR ACROSS THE METRO THIS MRNG.
THERE IS EVIDENCE OF SOME UPSTREAM CLEARING...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPECT VFR THIS AFTN. EXACT TIMING OF THIS
CONVERSION REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE...AND AMENDMENTS HAVE
SLOWED DOWN IMPROVEMENT.

So the AFD's offered through 14Z would not have kept me from departing, while those from 15Z onward might have inspired second thoughts.

As recounted yesterday, N631S and I arrived at KBDR about 1715Z, missed on the ILS Runway 6 approach (when the weather was 1/2 mile and 200 feet), held for a while and diverted to KOXC. We landed there about 1745Z. By that time the 18Z TAF was out and it called for low IFR conditions (a mile and 300 feet) through until 10 AM Tuesday, except for brief periods of slightly better conditions during the afternoon. The supporting AFD had this to add:

 
1252 PM EST MON DEC 5 2011
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK SLOWLY
TOWARDS THE AREA TNGT. AREA REMAINS SOCKED IN WITH LLVL
MOISTURE THRU THE TAF PERIOD. TAFS INDICATE MAINLY IFR...
HOWEVER SOME BREAKS TO VFR ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN. THIS
HAS BEEN HANDLED WITH A TEMPO. CIGS LOWER AGAIN
TNGT. SOME -RA POSSIBLE TUE AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER.
CIGS/VSBY FCST THRU 00Z REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE...IN
PART DUE TO MID CLOUD COVER OBSCURING LOW CLOUDS ON STLT.

This discussion certainly casts a shadow over the TAF. In fact, the ceiling at KBDR went up to 400 feet for about 1/2 hour mid-afternoon (long enough for N631S and I to make an unsuccessful attempt to sneak into Bridgeport) and promptly went back down to 200 feet, there to stay overnight.

The Area Forecast Discussions are a useful tool, giving insight into the forecaster's thoughts and level of confidence. But having reviewed them, I don't think that they would have changed any of my decisions on Monday. The forecaster's multiple references to "low confidence" in aspects of the TAF's do reinforce the notion that the behavior of fog is hard to predict.

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"On little cat feet"

Sunday evening it all looked good for a Monday morning flight from the DC area to Connecticut. Temperatures aloft were going to be warm enough for me to file for an altitude of 7,000 feet – fairly unusual for December. The Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) for Bridgeport issued at 9:00 PM (02Z) suggested that the weather on arrival at KBDR would be reasonable:

 
KBDR 050209Z 0502/0524 VRB04KT 1 1/2SM BR SCT030 BKN250
   TEMPO 0502/0505 3SM BR 
   FM050500 20005KT 2SM BR BKN025
   FM050800 VRB03KT 2SM BR SCT005 OVC010 
   FM051400 22005KT P6SM SCT010 OVC040 
   FM051600 22007KT P6SM SCT040 OVC150
   FM051900 22008KT P6SM OVC040=

The plan was to depart soon after 7:00 AM (12Z) for the roughly 2 hour trip. For a 14Z arrival I could expect good visibility, scattered clouds at 1,000 feet and an overcast at 4,000. And conditions were forecast to continue improving. I turned in feeling good about the flight.

My first indication that all might not be well came when, on arising at oh-dark-30 (actually 5:00 AM), I checked the METAR at KBDR:

 
METAR KBDR 050952Z 00000KT 1/4SM FG VV002 07/05 A3036 RMK AO2 SLP279 T00670050=

This was not good. The fog, without being in the forecast, had come to KBDR "on little cat feet" and with the wind calm (0000KT) it could well sit "over harbor and city on silent haunches" for an unpleasantly long time. And 1/4 mile visibility with an indefinite 200 foot ceiling (VV200) was well below minimums for the Runway 6 ILS approach. Still, the forecast continued to call for improving conditions so I headed for the airport.

By the time I'd pre-flighted N631S, taxied to the fuel island and topped off the tanks, the 12Z TAF was out:

TAF KBDR 051120Z 0512/0612 VRB03KT 2SM BR OVC006
   TEMPO 0512/0514 1/2SM FG OVC002 
   FM051400 22005KT P6SM SCT010 OVC040 
   FM051600 22007KT P6SM SCT040 OVC150 
   FM052200 22008KT P6SM OVC040 
   FM060200 19007KT 5SM BR OVC020 
   FM060700 19008KT 4SM -RA BR OVC015=

Now, in the TEMPO group, the forecaster at least acknowledged the presence of the fog. But conditions were still projected to improve after 14Z (9:00 AM).

But I've been flying in and out of Sikorsky Memorial Airport for quite a few years now, and I've seen fog before. The phenomenon could be very persistent, lingering for hours beyond the time when things were forecast to improve. So I wanted to see an improvement at KBDR before I'd launch in that direction. I'd wait a while.

Things improved a bit at KBDR just before 10:00 AM as the following METAR's show:

 
METAR KBDR 051452Z 00000KT 1/2SM FG BKN004 OVC008 10/09 A3038=
SPECI KBDR 051459Z 00000KT 1SM BR BKN004 OVC008 11/09 A3038

Visibility had improved to a mile and the ceiling was up to 400 feet. These values were adequate for the ILS approach. In addition, an amendment to the TAF had issued that seemed to promise continued improvement:

KBDR 051347Z 0514/0612 VRB03KT 1/4SM FG VV002
   TEMPO 0514/0515 2SM BR OVC006 
   FM051500 22005KT P6SM SCT010 OVC040 
   FM051600 22007KT P6SM SCT040 OVC150 
   FM052200 22008KT P6SM OVC040 
   FM060200 19007KT 5SM BR OVC020 
   FM060700 19008KT 4SM -RA BR OVC015=

If I got underway, I'd be at Bridgeport a bit after noon (17Z) and the forecast suggested that visibility would be good and the ceiling would be, by that time, overcast at 4,000 feet. Neat! So I fired up N631S and we were off the ground at 1522Z, headed north.

Of course, a forecast is just a forecast. A "guess" – a highly educated guess, but... So as soon as N631S was settled down in cruise at 7,000 feet I checked the new METAR at KBDR:

 
SPECI KBDR 051515Z 00000KT 1SM BR OVC002 11/09 A3038 RMK AO2=

Rats! The ceiling was back down to 200 feet. This was not what I wanted to see. So I did two things. First, I slooooowed N631S down a lot. Prop RPM down to 2100, fuel flow down to 10 gallons per hour. Perhaps some extra time would allow the happier parts of that forecast to materialize. And second, I started looking for another place to land.

 
SPECI KDXR 051544Z 22003KT 8SM SCT007 OVC055 11/09 A3037

With eight miles of visibility and a high overcast ceiling, Danbury (KDXR) was a good option. With that Plan "B" in hand, all that was left was to go to KBDR and see what I found there.

To cut to the chase, conditions at KBDR did not improve by the time I got there. N631S and I flew the ILS Rwy 6 approach, advised by the tower that the ceiling was at 200 feet with 1/2 mile visibility – well below minimums. At 300 feet on the glide-slope there was nothing to see but gray. I reported on the missed approach, tower switched me back to New York approach and the controller there said, "Say intentions."

I requested a couple of turns in the hold to figure things out. While the Garmin 530W GPS worked with the S-TEC 50 autopilot to fly N631S around in the hold I checked the METAR's at nearby airports. Waterbury-Oxford (KOXC) was only about 12 miles north and was VFR so that's where we went. N631S and I landed there at 1746Z. (The clip above shows the approach to KBDR, the hold and the flight path up to KOXC. Click to enlarge, if you like.)

So there I was in Oxford and there sat the fog at Bridgeport. I checked the 18Z TAF, which had just been issued:

TAF KBDR 051733Z 0518/0618 VRB04KT 1SM BR BKN003 OVC060
   TEMPO 0519/0523 6SM BR SCT005 BKN060 
   FM052300 21005KT 1SM BR BKN003 
   FM061500 22008KT 4SM BR BKN008=

The forecaster was now suggesting that prevailing weather for the balance of the afternoon would be a mile visibility and 300 foot ceiling, with brief periods of good visibility and a 6,000 foot ceiling. I'd watch the METAR's and hope for a break in the weather that I could use to sneak into Bridgeport.

The break came (I thought) at about 2:00 PM (19Z), when the visibility rose to 3 miles and the ceiling lifted to 400 feet:

SPECI KBDR 051859Z 00000KT 3SM BR OVC004 12/10 A3030 RMK AO2=

OK, that was good enough. I quickly called Flight Service and filed an IFR flight plan for KOXC to KBDR, direct.

In short order, N631S and I were back in the air and headed for KBDR. The New York Approach controller asked if I had ATIS "November" at Bridgeport, which I quickly picked up. It was consistent with the last METAR I'd seen. So far, so good. The controller began to issue vectors to me for the ILS Rwy 6 approach (see clip above, at left). About then I heard another aircraft on the frequency mention "Tango at Bridgeport". Uh-oh. That could only mean a later ATIS incorporating a change in conditions. I went back to the Bridgeport ATIS frequency and heard, "Visibility one and three-quarter miles, sky condition overcast 200 feet." Back below minimums. This wasn't my day.

The controller asked me if I had gotten "Tango" and I said, "Yes, and it's depressing." She said, "A King-Air just missed there...do you want to try it anyway?" I declined and asked for a vector back to KOXC, which still enjoyed excellent visual conditions.

That wrapped up aviating for the day. I arranged with the FBO to park N631S overnight and, with another pilot who'd diverted from KBDR, rented a car for the short drive to Bridgeport. That turned out to be a good choice, as for the rest of the day the ceiling at KBDR never got above 200 feet. The weather at this writing (Tuesday evening) continues to be poor. But this weather system will pass through tomorrow and Thursday is forecast to be VFR. That's when I'll find my way back to Oxford to retrieve N631S.

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