tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-510895126408960571.post8048100803702832641..comments2023-11-10T05:21:02.149-05:00Comments on N631S: The Fallacy of SafetyUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-510895126408960571.post-35817910422261265632010-06-16T07:51:12.608-04:002010-06-16T07:51:12.608-04:00Christine, I won't contend that "risk mit...Christine, I won't contend that "risk mitigation decisions are made on a sliding scale of potential damage," but rather that they <i>should</i> be. It's apparent that risk mitigation on the Deepwater Horizon was totally inadequate, given the potential damage, which was, I'd say, fully foreseeable. <br /><br />As to the difficulty of understanding risks in complex systems, there is known technology for that task. It's called FMEA - Failure Modes & Effects Analysis. It ain't easy and it ain't cheap and of course it ain't perfect, but it works a whole lot better than relying on fallible gut instinct.<br /><br />Finally, we'll have to agree to disagree on Ms. Hersman's endorsement of dreaming the impossible dream. I continue to regard pursuit of that chimera as the enemy of a proper risk mitigation strategy.<br /><br />Thanks so much for contributing your views, which always provoke another layer of thinking.<br /><br />Regards,<br /><br />FrankFrank Van Hastehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10821687850881538546noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-510895126408960571.post-46211279927829065262010-06-15T22:54:29.384-04:002010-06-15T22:54:29.384-04:00Excellent post, Frank, though I’ll argue with the ...Excellent post, Frank, though I’ll argue with the notion that risk mitigation decisions are made on a sliding scale of potential damage. If that were the case, we’d have seen more risk mitigation on the BP oil platform than on airplanes. Public pressure is the wild card here. Complex systems are alien to most of us, but it’s all-too easy to imagine oneself on crashing jetliner. See my blog on this subject at http://christinenegroni.blogspot.com/2010/04/whats-safe-above-is-safe-below-applying.html<br /><br />We cannot understand all the safety risks in even the most examined endeavors because every new technological advance introduces a myriad new opportunities for mayhem. Even the best minds can’t forecast the specifics. <br /><br />Deb Hersman is right, to attempt the unachievable beats settling for anything less.Christine Negronihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15190247339367487575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-510895126408960571.post-19219624865957245932010-06-12T20:58:45.431-04:002010-06-12T20:58:45.431-04:00Very well put. Nice post!Very well put. Nice post!Gregnoreply@blogger.com